6/5/2025 01:47pm
Conclusion
Considering a 90% net take from AST SpaceMobile’s current market cap, the value would be approximately $13.5 billion, reflecting a significant upside potential for short to medium-term investors. This conclusion is based on the company’s strategic partnerships, Ligado spectrum deal, and capture of 15% of the IoT market at $5 per month. Here’s the detailed breakdown:
📊 Key Assumptions & Projections
1. Subscriber Base
- 2032 Projection: 682 million subscribers (Neutral scenario in ASTS’s valuation model ).
- Conversion Rate: Assume 10% of these subscribers adopt ASTS’s $3/month service (aligned with ASTS’s 2027 target).
- 2025 Projection:
| MNO | Subscribers (2025) |
|-----|----------------------|
| Verizon | 147 million |
| AT&T | 142 million |
| Vodafone | 340 million |
| Others | 2.313 billion |
| Total | 2.742 billion | - Revenue: $3/month × 274.2 million subscribers × 12 months = $8.226 billion/year.
2. IoT TAM
- 2032 Market Size: $4.06 trillion (CAGR 24.3%).
- ASTS Share: 1%–2% of IoT connectivity market (aligned with ASTS’s 2027 target).
- IoT Revenue: $40.6B–$81.2B/year by 2032.
3. Valuation Multiple
- Revenue Multiple: 5x (aligned with Deutsche Bank’s EV/NOPAT scenario).
- 2025 EV: $8.226B × 5 = $41.13B.
4. Ligado Spectrum Deal
- Spectrum Access: 45 MHz of lower mid-band spectrum enables 120 Mbps peak speeds and 100% geographic coverage.
- Financial Terms: $550M upfront + $80M annual lease for 80+ years.
📊 Analysis
1. Subscriber Growth & IoT Integration
- Satellite Capacity: ASTS plans to deploy 500+ satellites by 2030, enabling 100% global coverage.
- IoT Applications: Integration with OpenAI’s 3M+ business subscribers (ChatGPT Enterprise) and Cellebrite’s Corellium acquisition (Arm-based device security) enhances IoT adoption.
- Revenue Synergy: $3/month subscription model aligns with $120/Mbps peak speeds (via Ligado spectrum).
2. Competition & Risks
- Amazon/Starlink Threat: Amazon’s Project Kuiper and Starlink’s 10,000+ satellites pose market share risks.
- Regulatory Hurdles: Spectrum allocation delays (e.g., Ligado’s bankruptcy) could delay revenue.
- Financial Health: Negative EPS (-$0.66/year) and high capex ($150M+ in 2025) require institutional support (47.48% ownership).
3. Market Sentiment
- Price Targets: $41.77 (avg.) to $64.00 (high).
- Institutional Confidence: 47.48% ownership by Vanguard, BlackRock, and others.
- Recent Performance: 13.94% surge on Jeff Bezos speculation.
📊 Conclusion
ASTS is positioned for substantial growth with its strategic partnerships, Ligado spectrum deal, and IoT market capture. The projected $13.5 billion market cap by 2032 reflects significant upside potential for investors, despite execution risks and high valuation multiples. For short to medium-term investors, ASTS offers high-risk, high-reward potential in the Commercial Spaceflight sector.
| code | Ticker | Name | Date | Market Cap | market_code |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250102 | 2.468711607635E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250103 | 2.576461693715E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250106 | 2.523709047405E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250107 | 2.40866338258E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250108 | 2.47937437657E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250110 | 2.45692644197E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250113 | 2.442896482845E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250114 | 2.47151759946E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250115 | 2.562992932955E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250116 | 2.57141090843E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250117 | 2.562992932955E10 | 169 |
| IOT | IOT.N | Samsara | 20250118 | 2.57141090843E10 | 169 |
