I own 1,000 shares of REPL at 13.00 per share and 17 PUTs with a struck price of 7.50 dollars. The company was just issued a CRL for thier latest drug approval and the premarket price is 3.00 dollars. What should I do now ?
7/22/2025 08:16pm
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The deep research logic is organized as follows:
Okay, let's tackle this user's question. They own 1,000 shares of REPL at $13.00 each and 17 PUT options with a strike price of $7.50. The company just received a CRL for their drug approval, and the premarket price is $3.00. They're asking what to do now.
First, I need to understand the situation. REPL's stock dropped significantly after the FDA rejected their BLA. The user has a long position in the stock and also has put options. The puts are in-the-money since the stock is now at $3.00, which is below the strike price of $7.50.
The user's background shows they're interested in the Gene Editing industry and has followed CRSP. They've asked about analyst targets and price targets, indicating they might be looking for technical analysis and long-term potential. Their investment horizon is medium to long-term, so they might be considering holding through this setback or exiting.
I should start by evaluating the current position. The stock is down 77% from $13 to $3. The puts are valuable now. The user needs to decide whether to exercise the puts, sell them, or hold. Also, considering the company's future prospects post-CRL.
Looking at the references, REPL's CRL was unexpected, and the company is planning to meet with the FDA. The market reaction was severe, but the user might be holding for a potential recovery. The puts provide downside protection, but with the stock at $3, the intrinsic value is $4.50 per put. The user has 17 puts, so that's $76,500 in intrinsic value. But they also have the 1,000 shares worth $3,000, a loss of $10,000.
The user's options are:
1. Exercise the puts to lock in the $7.50 strike, selling the stock at that price. This would cover part of their loss.
2. Sell the puts in the market for a higher premium, possibly more than intrinsic value if there's volatility.
3. Hold both the stock and puts, hoping for a rebound in the stock price.
Considering the user's interest in long-term potential, maybe holding the stock while selling the puts could be a strategy. Alternatively, exercising the puts to secure some capital and then re-investing if they believe in the company's future.
Also, the user's profile mentions following CRSP, which is in the gene editing space. REPL's focus is on oncolytic immunotherapies, which might align with their interest in gene editing. The company's partnerships and pipeline could still be valuable, even after this setback.
I need to check the references for any recent news on REPL's partnerships or pipeline. From the references, REPL has partnerships with Akron Bio, Deciphex, Lundbeck, and others. They're expanding their gene therapy capabilities. The FDA's rejection was due to trial design issues, not safety, which might mean the drug could still be approved with additional data.
The user's puts expire when? The references don't specify, but if they're near-term, they might want to exercise or sell soon. If they're longer-term, holding could be an option.
Also, the user's cost basis is $13,000 for the stock. The puts were likely purchased as protection. Now that the stock is down, the puts are a significant asset. They need to balance between cutting losses and holding for potential recovery.
In conclusion, the user has options to either secure gains from the puts, reduce their stock position, or hold for a potential rebound. They should consider their risk tolerance, the company's future prospects, and the expiration of their puts.
```
### Conclusion 🚨
**Immediate Action Needed**: Your position in Replimune Group (REPL) has been severely impacted by the FDA’s Complete Response Letter (CRL) for RP1, with the stock plummeting to $3.00 premarket. Here’s a structured plan to optimize your position:
---
### 1. **Current Position Analysis**
| Asset | Quantity | Current Value | Unrealized P/L |
|----------------|----------|---------------|-----------------|
| REPL Stock | 1,000 | $3,000 | **Loss: $10,000** |
| REPL PUTs (7.50) | 17 | $76,500 | **Gain: $76,500** |
| **Total** | | **$79,500** | **Net Gain: $66,500** |
**Key Takeaway**: Your PUT options are **in-the-money** (ITM) with an intrinsic value of $4.50 per contract ($7.50 strike - $3.00 stock price). However, the stock’s sharp decline has wiped out your initial investment in REPL.
---
### 2. **Strategic Recommendations**
#### **Option 1: Exercise the PUTs Immediately**
- **Action**: Exercise all 17 PUTs at $7.50 to sell your 1,000 shares of REPL.
- **Proceeds**: $7.50 × 1,000 = **$7,500**.
- **Net Outcome**:
- **Profit from PUTs**: $76,500 (intrinsic value).
- **Loss on Stock**: $10,000.
- **Total Proceeds**: $7,500 (from stock sale) + $76,500 (from PUTs) = **$84,000**.
- **Net Gain**: $84,000 - $13,000 (initial investment) = **$71,000**.
**Why?** This locks in your gains from the PUTs while limiting further downside exposure to REPL.
---
#### **Option 2: Sell the PUTs in the Market**
- **Action**: Sell your 17 PUTs at the current market price (likely higher than intrinsic value due to volatility).
- **Assumption**: Let’s say you sell each PUT for $5.00 (premium above intrinsic value).
- **Proceeds**: $5.00 × 17 = **$85,000**.
- **Net Outcome**:
- **Profit from PUTs**: $85,000.
- **Loss on Stock**: $10,000.
- **Total Proceeds**: $85,000 - $10,000 = **$75,000**.
- **Net Gain**: $75,000 - $13,000 = **$62,000**.
**Why?** This maximizes your profit from the PUTs but leaves you exposed to further stock price declines.
---
#### **Option 3: Hold the Stock & PUTs**
- **Rationale**: Replimune’s pipeline (e.g., partnerships with Akron Bio and Lundbeck) and gene therapy capabilities could still unlock value. The FDA’s CRL may be resolved with additional data.
- **Risk**: Further stock price volatility (e.g., potential for another 30% decline).
- **Potential Upside**: If REPL’s stock recovers to $10.00, your 1,000 shares would gain $7,000, while your PUTs would lose value.
**Why?** This aligns with your long-term interest in the gene editing sector but carries significant risk.
---
### 3. **Optimal Strategy**
Given your **medium-to-long-term horizon** and interest in gene editing, here’s the best approach:
1. **Exercise 10 PUTs** to sell 1,000 shares at $7.50, securing **$7,500**.
2. **Hold 7 PUTs** as insurance against further declines.
3. **Reinvest Proceeds**: Use the $7,500 to explore other gene editing stocks (e.g., CRSP or other biotech names).
**Why?** This balances risk and reward by locking in gains while retaining upside potential.
---
### 4. **Final Takeaway** 📊
Your position is highly leveraged to Replimune’s ability to resolve the FDA’s CRL. While the short-term outlook is bleak, the company’s partnerships and pipeline suggest long-term potential. Act decisively to secure gains while preserving flexibility for future opportunities.
**Next Steps**:
- Monitor REPL’s FDA interactions (Type A meeting expected within 30 days).
- Track competition in the melanoma space (e.g., Labcorp Holdings Inc. [LH] and Bio-Techne Corp. [TECH]).
- Reassess your position post-FDA update (target date: Q4 2025).
Let me know if you need further analysis! 🚀