I have a call option expiring this Friday I need a price of at least $222 to break even. What at the chances I will or make money

To determine the likelihood of making a profit from your call option, we need to consider several factors:

1. **Current Price and Strike Price**: The current price of MicroStrategy (MSTR) is below your strike price of $222, which means the option is currently out-of-the-money (OTM). This is a common scenario for call options, especially those nearing expiration.
2. **Time Decay**: As the option approaches expiration, time decay can work in your favor if the stock price moves in your favor. However, if it fails to reach your break-even point by expiration, time decay will erode the value of your option.
3. **Volatility**: The volatility of MSTR's stock can impact your option's value. High volatility can increase the option's premium, while low volatility can decrease it.
4. **Market Sentiment**: The positive sentiment surrounding MSTR, as indicated by the high analyst price targets and bullish technical indicators, could potentially lead to a rise in the stock price.
5. **Bitcoin Market**: Given MSTR's significant Bitcoin holdings, the price of Bitcoin will also influence the stock's price. If Bitcoin's price rises significantly, it could contribute to MSTR's price surpassing your break-even point.

Given these factors, here's a analysis:

- **Chances of Breaking Even**: The current price of MSTR is below your strike price, and the stock will need to appreciate significantly to reach your break-even point by expiration. While possible, this outcome is not guaranteed, especially considering the time decay factor.
- **Chances of Making a Profit**: If MSTR's price rises above your strike price due to positive market movements, your call option could become in-the-money (ITM). However, the closer you are to expiration, the less time decay will benefit your position, as the premium will decrease rapidly.

To improve your chances of making a profit, consider the following strategies:

- **Rolling the Position**: If possible, you could consider rolling your option to a later date with a higher strike price to potentially increase the premium and give the stock more time to appreciate.
- **Hedging**: Implementing a hedging strategy could mitigate potential losses if the stock fails to reach your break-even point.
- **Monitoring Market Indicators**: Keep a close eye on the stock's price, Bitcoin's price, and any relevant market indicators that could influence the stock's movement.

Remember, options trading involves risks, and it's important to have a clear risk management strategy in place. Consult with a financial advisor or a professional options trader to assess the specific risks and potential rewards of your position.