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I bought Google at $175.35 what would your recommendation be?

4/17/2025 07:16pm

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this user's question. They bought Google (GOOGL) at $175.35 and are asking for a recommendation. First, I need to look at the current price, which is $151.17 as of April 17, 2025. That's a significant drop, so the user is likely concerned about their loss and wants to know whether to hold, sell, or do something else.

The user's profile mentions they focus on technical analysis and short-term investments. They're interested in sectors like Autonomous Vehicles and EVs, but their current question is about GOOGL. So, I need to frame the answer around technical indicators and short-term strategies.

Looking at the references, there's a lot of data. The antitrust ruling on April 17 (References 30-35) is a big negative. The stock fell 1% post-ruling, and there's a potential for further declines if the appeal doesn't go well. The technical analysis from Reference 33 shows support at $154.93 and resistance at $205.48. The current price is below the support, which is a bearish sign.

The moving averages (References 11-13) show the stock is trading below all key short-term averages (5-day, 10-day, etc.), which is a bearish indicator. The MACD is positive (1.55), but the RSI is 40.41, which is neutral, not oversold yet. The Bollinger Bands are at 156.43, and the price is below the lower band, which could indicate an oversold condition, but the RSI isn't confirming that.

The user's cost basis is $175.35. The current price is $151.17, so they're down about 14%. They might be considering tax-loss harvesting (References 24-27), which could help offset other gains. However, the wash-sale rule applies, so they need to wait 30 days before repurchasing the same stock.

Institutional activity (References 29, 48) shows some buying, but the overall sentiment is negative due to the antitrust issues. The 200-day moving average is around $173.11 (Reference 13), and the stock is below that, which is a long-term bearish signal.

The antitrust appeal (References 38, 42) could take 12-18 months, which is too long for a short-term investor. The user might not want to wait that long, so selling now to cut losses and possibly re-enter later at a better price makes sense.

Considering the user's focus on technicals, the breakdown below key support levels and moving averages suggests a bearish trend. The RSI isn't low enough to signal a buy yet. The tax-loss harvesting option is a valid consideration to mitigate losses.

So, the recommendation would be to sell to lock in the loss, use tax-loss harvesting if applicable, and wait for a clearer technical rebound before re-entering. Monitoring the appeal and institutional moves could provide entry points, but given the short-term focus, cutting losses is prudent.

Conclusion: Based on your cost basis of $175.35, current price of $151.17 (-14% loss), and your short-term, technical-focused strategy, selling GOOGL now is advisable to lock in losses and avoid prolonged exposure to near-term risks. Below is the detailed analysis:

Critical Factors Influencing the Decision

Technical Breakdown
- GOOGL is trading below all key short-term moving averages (5-day: $155.34, 10-day: $152.53, 20-day: $156.43) ¹², confirming a bearish trend.
- The stock is also below its 200-day moving average ($173.11) ³, a critical long-term support level.
- Support level: $154.93 (immediately above the current price) ⁴. A break below this level could trigger further declines.

1/3

GOOGL Trend

Antitrust Headwinds
- On April 17, 2025, a federal judge ruled Google monopolized publisher ad servers and ad exchanges, potentially requiring divestitures (e.g., Chrome, Ad Manager) ⁵⁶.
- The stock fell 1% post-ruling and now trades 22% below its 52-week high ⁶⁷.
- Appeals could take 12–18 months, prolonging uncertainty ⁷⁸.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Opportunity
- Given your $175.35 cost basis, selling now allows you to realize a $24.18 per-share loss (-14%).
- Use this loss to offset up to $3,000 in taxable income or capital gains ⁹¹⁰.
- Avoid the 30-day wash-sale rule by waiting to repurchase GOOGL or a similar tech stock.
Institutional Sentiment
- Institutional ownership has waned amid antitrust concerns, with GOOGL dropping off the IBD Leaderboard ¹²¹³.
- Recent whale activity shows bearish call trades at the $150 strike ¹⁴, reflecting skepticism about a near-term rebound.

Strategic Recommendations

Action	Rationale	Trigger
Sell Now	- Lock in losses (-14%) before further downside. - Avoid prolonged exposure to antitrust appeals.	- Current price ($151.17) below all short-term moving averages.
Wait for Rebound	- Monitor the $154.93 support level. - Re-enter on a confirmed break above $160 (resistance).	- Stock stabilizes above $154.93. - Institutional buying resumes (e.g., Vanguard owns 4.5% of GOOGL) ¹⁵.
Tax-Loss Harvesting	- Offset losses against other gains. - Reinvest in a comparable tech stock after 30 days.	- Immediate execution to maximize tax benefits.

Key Risks to Monitor

Antitrust Remedies: A forced sale of Chrome (65% search market share) could reduce Google’s ad revenue by 20–30% ⁷.
Technical Breakdown: A sustained drop below $145 (52-week low) would signal a bearish shift ⁶.
Institutional Activity: Watch for buying by firms like Citi (recently lowered price target to $195) ¹⁶.

Final Take

Given your short-term focus and the technical breakdown, selling GOOGL at $151.17 is the prudent move. Use the tax-loss harvesting opportunity to mitigate losses, and consider re-entering on a confirmed break above $160 (resistance level) or after antitrust clarity emerges.

Let me know if you’d like to explore alternative tech stocks for re-investment!

Source:

1. GOOGL 5-Day Moving Average, 10-Day Moving Average, 20-Day Moving Average