Is HTGC's Q4 2024 EPS decline a concern?

**Hercules Capital's (HTGC) Q4 2024 EPS decline is a concern.** Here's why:

1. **Q4 2024 EPS Miss**: Hercules Capital missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, reporting an EPS of $0.4, which is significantly below the expected EPS. This marks a decline from the previous quarter's EPS of $0.51.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|HTGC|HTGC.N|Hercules Capital|2024 Q1|-16.176470588235308|0.57|169|
|HTGC|HTGC.N|Hercules Capital|2024 Q2|-62.121212121212125|0.25|169|
|HTGC|HTGC.N|Hercules Capital|2024 Q3|121.05263157894737|0.42|169|

2. **Revenue Fall**: The company's revenue for the quarter ended September 2024, was $125.25 million, marking a year-over-year increase of only 7.3%. This is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $125.8 million, representing a surprise of -0.44%.
3. **Analyst Revisions**: Analysts are revising their forecasts downward, reflecting the broader concern about Hercules Capital's performance. The projected EPS for Q4 2024 was $0.51, which would represent a decline of 1.9% compared to the same period last year. This suggests that the decline in EPS is not a one-time event but may be part of a trend.
4. **Market Reaction**: The market's reaction to the earnings miss and the decline in EPS has been cautious, with some analysts adjusting their price targets and ratings. For instance, Wells Fargo & Company upped its price objective to $22.00, while Piper Sandler raised their price target to $22.50, indicating a potential upside despite the current challenges.
5. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for Hercules Capital remains mixed. While the company has a history of generating income, the recent decline in EPS and revenue suggests that it may face challenges in the near term. Investors will need to monitor the company's performance closely to assess its ability to recover and sustain growth.

In conclusion, the decline in HTGC's Q4 2024 EPS is a concern, particularly given the company's missed revenue expectations and analysts' revised forecasts. However, the slight increase in price targets by some analysts offers a glimmer of hope for the company's future prospects, provided that it can demonstrate improved performance in the coming quarters.