Die Logik der vertieften Forschung ist wie folgt strukturiert:
Okay, let's tackle this question about how interest rates might change given Jerome Powell's impending resignation. The user is asking in German, so I need to make sure the answer is in German, but the references are in English. First, I'll need to parse all the provided references to gather relevant data.
Looking at the references, there's a lot about Trump's criticism of Powell, the Fed's stance on interest rates, and Powell's warnings about tariffs causing inflation and economic slowdown. The key points here are the tension between the President and the Fed Chair, the Fed's independence, and the potential impact of a leadership change.
The user is interested in tech stocks and the NASDAQ, so I should connect the interest rate changes to the tech market. Tech stocks are sensitive to interest rates because higher rates can increase borrowing costs for companies and reduce investor appetite for high-risk assets.
From the references, Powell has been cautious about cutting rates due to inflation concerns from Trump's tariffs. The Fed's federal funds rate has been decreasing from 5.33% in April 2024 to 4.33% by April 2025 (Reference 10). However, there's uncertainty about future cuts because of the economic policies under Trump, which might lead to stagflation (References 8, 11, 12, 13).
Trump wants Powell fired and expects more aggressive rate cuts, but the Fed's independence is a legal barrier (References 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9). The Supreme Court case mentioned in Reference 2 could affect whether the President can fire Powell, but even if he can't, the transition process is already underway with the White House planning interviews for a successor (References 24, 25, 26).
Experts like JPMorgan's Karen Ward (Reference 20) predict a possible pause in rate cuts after December 2025 to assess economic impacts. The Fed's communication strategy (Reference 17) shows that Chair testimonies significantly impact market rates, so a new leader might alter this communication style.
Considering the user's interest in tech stocks, lower interest rates could boost tech valuations, but if the Fed remains cautious due to inflation, tech might face headwinds. The transition to a new Fed Chair could introduce uncertainty, affecting market sentiment. The tech-heavy NASDAQ would be particularly sensitive to rate changes and Fed communication.
I need to structure the answer to address the direct impact of Powell's resignation on rate policy, the role of Trump's policies, the Fed's independence, and the implications for tech markets. Use the provided data points, cite the references correctly, and include the visualization for the query about Powell's resignation impact (Reference 10). Also, ensure the answer is in German, maintains a professional tone, and aligns with the user's moderate risk tolerance and long-term strategy.
Zusammenfassung: Die Zinsentwicklung 2025/2026 wird maßgeblich von der Konfrontation zwischen Präsident Trump und dem Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, der bis Mai 2026 in Amt ist, sowie von der zentralen Bankpolitik der Fed bestimmt sein. Ein "Rücktritt" Powells ist rechtlich nicht möglich, aber die politische Spannung könnte die Zinspolitik indirekt beeinflussen. Hier ist die detaillierte Analyse:
1. aktuelle Zinsstandorte und Powell's Position
Die Federal Funds Rate (die kurzfristige Zentralbankzinsrate) wurde im Laufe 2024 von 5,33 % auf 4,33 % reduziert 1. Powell hat in seiner Rede am 16. April 2025 betont,
4/18/2025 01:52am
