How reliable are VTLE's EPS forecasts?

Vital Energy's (VTLE) EPS forecasts for the upcoming quarter are generally reliable, considering the following points:

1. Consensus Among Analysts: The EPS forecast of $2.13 per share for the quarter ended December 2024 is in line with the consensus among analysts, which also predicts a decline in earnings on higher revenues.

2. Revisions Trend: The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.64% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a general upward adjustment in analysts' expectations. This suggests that the forecasts are not only reliable but also potentially conservative.
3. Historical Performance: Vital Energy has shown variability in its financial performance. For instance, the company's EPS TTM is $50.396, and it has a P/E ratio of 1.17. This historical performance provides a benchmark for evaluating the reliability of the forecasted EPS.
4. Market Conditions: The forecasted EPS takes into account the prevailing market conditions and business outlook. Vital Energy is expected to benefit from higher revenues due to increased natural gas and oil prices. This reflects the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
5. Company's Recent Performance: Vital Energy's recent earnings report exceeded analysts' expectations with a reported EPS of $2.55 for the quarter, compared to consensus estimates of $2.44. This recent outperformance supports the reliability of the forecasted EPS.

In conclusion, while there is always some degree of uncertainty in financial forecasting, the EPS forecast for Vital Energy's upcoming quarter is considered reliable due to the consensus among analysts, revisions trend, historical performance, market conditions, and the company's recent performance.