How does OBK's Q1 forecast compare to past performance?

**Origin Bancorp's (OBK) Q1 2024 forecast reflects an optimistic outlook compared to past performance**, as indicated by the following:

1. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Revenue**: The estimated EPS for Q1 2024 is $0.60, which is higher than the EPS of $0.73 reported in Q1 2024. This suggests that the bank is expected to perform better in terms of profitability in the upcoming quarter. Additionally, the estimated revenue for Q1 2024 is $89.44 million, which is slightly below the reported revenue of $90.58 million in Q1 2024. This indicates a realistic expectation of revenue, considering the bank's actual performance in the preceding quarter.

2. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts have raised their FY2024 EPS estimates to $2.65 per share, up from $2.50, indicating a positive outlook on the bank's future performance. The consensus estimate for OBK's current full-year earnings is $2.59 per share, which is also above the previous forecast.
3. **Recent Performance Trends**: OBK's Q2 2024 earnings exceeded expectations with an EPS of $0.67 and revenue of $96.4 million, compared to estimates of $0.62 per share and $91.08 million, respectively. This trend of surpassing estimates suggests that the bank is performing well and has the potential to continue this trajectory in Q1 2024.
4. **Market Sentiment**: Despite some fluctuations in institutional holdings, such as American Century Companies Inc. reducing its holdings, other institutions like Pitcairn Co. and Price T Rowe Associates Inc. have increased their stakes in OBK. This mixed but generally positive sentiment among investors can be indicative of confidence in the bank's future performance.

In conclusion, while OBK's Q1 2024 forecast reflects a slight dip in EPS compared to the previous quarter's performance, the overall trend of exceeding analyst expectations and the positive adjustments in earnings forecasts suggest an optimistic outlook for the bank's future performance.