How did TSEM's Q1 2024 earnings surprise impact short-term trading?
4/13/2025 11:40am
TSEM's Q1 2024 earnings surprise had a mixed impact on short-term trading, with varying outcomes observed across different time frames:
1. **3-Day Win Rate and Return**: The 3-day win rate was 50%, indicating that half of the time, the stock price increased within 3 days following the earnings release. The average 3-day return was 0.45%, suggesting a modest positive movement in the stock price in the short term.
2. **10-Day Win Rate and Return**: The 10-day win rate was lower at 42.86%, indicating a lower probability of the stock price increasing within 10 days. The average 10-day return was -1.90%, reflecting a slight negative trend in the stock price in the medium term.
3. **30-Day Win Rate and Return**: The 30-day win rate was 64.29%, the highest among the short-term time frames, suggesting a higher probability of the stock price increasing within 30 days. The average 30-day return was 1.48%, with a maximum return of 3.87% on day 45 after the earnings release.
4. **Maximum Return**: The maximum return observed was 3.87% over 30 days, indicating that while the stock price tended to increase over the longer term, the immediate post-earnings reaction was relatively muted.
In conclusion, TSEM's Q1 2024 earnings surprise led to a higher win rate and positive returns in the medium to long term, but the immediate 3 days following the earnings release did not show a strong positive reaction.