How did SNX's Q2 2025 forecast compare to past surprises?

SNX's Q2 2025 forecast indicates a bullish trend with a 67% probability of continuation, which is relatively high compared to the historical performance of the stock. However, the forecast also suggests a bearish risk, with a 33% probability of a clear trend reversal. This indicates that while there is a potential for growth, investors should remain cautious due to the inherent volatility in the forecast.

The forecast price for SNX in Q2 2025 is between $104.8 and $108.34, with a mean forecast price of $106.27. This suggests a modest increase from the current price trend. However, the forecast also indicates a significant range of possible outcomes, with a 34% confidence interval ranging from $102.13 to $108.34 and a 68% confidence interval ranging from $96.81 to $112.35.

In terms of historical performance, SNX has shown significant volatility, with a few periods of positive performance and several instances of negative performance. The most significant decline was a 50.94% drop, which occurred on November 25, 2003. Since then, the stock has experienced fluctuations, with a few periods of positive performance, but overall, the trend has been relatively stable, with minor gains and losses.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Percentage of EPS Surprise|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|SNX|SNX.N|TD SYNNEX|20240630|-3.19|169|
|SNX|SNX.N|TD SYNNEX|20240930|2.14|169|
|SNX|SNX.N|TD SYNNEX|20241231|0.98|169|
|SNX|SNX.N|TD SYNNEX|20250331|-3.78|169|

In conclusion, while the Q2 2025 forecast for SNX suggests a potential for growth, investors should be aware of the inherent volatility and potential for reversal. The forecast price range indicates a modest increase, but the significant range of possible outcomes should be considered. Historical performance shows that SNX has experienced significant fluctuations, with a few periods of positive performance and several instances of negative performance. Therefore, investors should approach the forecast with caution and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.