How did NOG's Q1 2025 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) is positioned for a robust growth trajectory in Q1 2025, supported by several key indicators:

1. **Production Outlook**: NOG anticipates production of 130.0–135.0 MBoe per day in 2025, reflecting a continuation of the production growth trend seen in recent years. In 2024, despite a seasonal downturn in the fourth quarter, NOG delivered over 25% production growth.
2. **Capital Expenditure**: The company plans to invest heavily in increased activity, with a capital budget of $1.05 billion – $1.20 billion for 2025. This is a significant increase from the $231 million – $232 million projected for the fourth quarter of 2024.
3. **Oil and Gas Projections**: NOG expects oil production to reach 75,000 – 79,000 Bbls per day, indicating a strong focus on oil-based production. Natural gas completions are anticipated to rise substantially, with 8.0–10.0 net wells expected compared to minimal completions in 2024.
4. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts forecast an EPS of $1.26 for Q1 2025, according to Capital One Financial, which is slightly higher than the current year's EPS of $1.13, indicating a positive outlook. This contrasts with a year-over-year decline in EPS forecast, which may raise concerns about short-term volatility. However, the overall trend suggests a recovery and growth in earnings.

5. **Institutional Confidence**: Institutional investors continue to show confidence in NOG, with recent filings indicating significant holdings and adjustments to their positions. For example, Truist Financial has a substantial holding in NOG, and Capital One Financial has recently revised its FY2024 EPS estimates upward.

In conclusion, NOG's Q1 2025 EPS forecast reflects a company that is poised for growth, supported by increased production, capital investments, and positive analyst sentiment. However, the year-over-year decline in EPS forecast highlights the importance of monitoring short-term volatility while considering the overall upward trend in production and earnings.