How did FRPT's Q1 2025 EPS forecast compare to past trends?
4/10/2025 06:38pm
**Freshpet's Q1 2025 EPS forecast is below recent trends.** Here's a detailed analysis:
1. **Current Forecast**: For Q1 2025, Freshpet is forecasted to report EPS of $0.20, which represents a 4.76% decrease from the EPS of the same quarter in the previous year.
2. **Historical Trends**: Freshpet has shown strong earnings growth in the past. The 5-year EPS diluted TTM CAGR for Freshpet is 83.37%, indicating a robust growth trajectory.
3. **Comparing Forecasts with Estimates**: Analysts' forecasts for Q1 2025 EPS are lower than the EPS from the previous year, which suggests a potential slowdown in earnings growth. This is in contrast to the historical trend of consistent earnings growth.
4. **Market Sentiment and Ratings**: Recent downgrades and price target reductions, such as Oppenheimer's downgrade to 'Perform' from 'Outperform' and JPMorgan's price target cut to $102 from $154, reflect cautious sentiment due to concerns about consumption trends and growth prospects. This sentiment is consistent with the lower EPS forecast for Q1 2025.
5. **Long-Term Outlook**: Despite the short-term concerns, Freshpet remains optimistic about its long-term growth drivers, such as product innovation, household penetration, and global expansion. The company projects FY 2025 net sales between $1.18 billion and $1.21 billion, representing 21%-24% growth year-over-year.
In conclusion, Freshpet's Q1 2025 EPS forecast indicates a potential decline in earnings growth compared to the strong historical trends the company has exhibited. This is likely due to short-term challenges and cautious market sentiment, but Freshpet's long-term growth prospects remain positive.