How did BBWI's Q1 2026 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

Bath & Body Works' (BBWI) Q1 2026 EPS forecast of $3.61 reflects a slight decline from the previous year's EPS of $3.84, indicating a potential slowdown in earnings growth over the coming year. This trend is consistent with the overall cautious outlook for BBWI's future performance.

1. **Comparison to Historical Trends**: BBWI's EPS has shown a general upward trend over the past few years, with EPS increasing from $2.31 in 2019 to $3.84 in 2024. However, the projected EPS of $3.61 for 2026 suggests a possible deceleration in this upward trajectory.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS (FY) YoY|Diluted EPS (FY)|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|BBWI|BBWI.N|Bath & Body Works|2019|-32.45614035087719|2.31|169|
|BBWI|BBWI.N|Bath & Body Works|2020|-157.14285714285714|-1.32|169|
|BBWI|BBWI.N|Bath & Body Works|2021|327.2727272727273|3|169|
|BBWI|BBWI.N|Bath & Body Works|2022|62.66666666666666|4.88|169|

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS (FY) YoY|Diluted EPS (FY)|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|BBWI|BBWI.N|Bath & Body Works|2023|-29.713114754098356|3.43|169|
|BBWI|BBWI.N|Bath & Body Works|2024|11.953352769679292|3.84|169|
|BBWI|BBWI.N|Bath & Body Works|2025|-5.989583333333333|3.61|169|

2. **Analysis of Recent Performance**: BBWI's recent performance has been mixed, with some quarters exceeding expectations and others facing challenges. For instance, Q1 FY2024 saw an increase in EPS to $0.38, which beat analyst expectations. However, Q2 guidance for FY2025 indicated a slight decline in EPS, raising concerns about the sustainability of recent earnings growth.
3. **Factors Influencing Future Performance**: The forecasted decline in EPS for 2026 may be influenced by various factors, including the ongoing impact of international sales softness and the war in the Middle East. Additionally, the company's reliance on discretionary spending and the potential effects of inflation on consumer purchasing power could also play a role.
4. **Strategic Initiatives**: BBWI's recent initiatives, such as the $500 million share repurchase program, may help support the company's financial performance and potentially boost investor confidence. The continued growth of the loyalty program and focus on brand prominence could also be positive drivers for the company's long-term earnings potential.

In conclusion, while BBWI's EPS forecast for Q1 2026 suggests a slight decline from recent years, the company's strategic initiatives and potential market conditions could influence future performance. It will be important to monitor these factors closely to assess the accuracy of the forecast and the overall direction of BBWI's earnings trajectory.