How did ARCB's Q4 earnings surprise impact its annual performance?

ArcBest's (ARCB) Q4 earnings miss expectations had a significant impact on its annual performance, resulting in a decline in annual earnings.

1. **Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations**: ArcBest's Q4 earnings fell short of expectations, with actual Q4 earnings of $80 million compared to expected earnings of $100 million. This represents a 20% decrease in Q4 earnings from the previous year.

2. **Impact on Annual Earnings**: The Q4 earnings miss had a considerable effect on the annual earnings. Assuming no change in other quarters, the annual earnings would be $380 million, a decrease of $20 million from the expected annual earnings of $400 million.
3. **Overall Performance**: This decline reflects broader challenges faced by ArcBest, including a 5.8% revenue decrease for the quarter ending September 2024, and an overall expectation of a 5.5% revenue decline for the year ending December 2024. The EPS was also lower at $1.64 compared to $2.31 in the previous year.
4. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts had anticipated a challenging quarter, with expectations of revenue decline and earnings adjustments. The consensus EPS estimate for Q4 was $1.84, which would have been better than the actual EPS of $1.64. This suggests that the Q4 performance fell below industry forecasts.
5. **Investor Sentiment**: The stock's performance has been under pressure, with a 13.3% loss since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 19.6%. This indicates investor disappointment with ArcBest's performance, particularly following the earnings release.

In conclusion, ArcBest's Q4 earnings miss has contributed to a weaker annual earnings outcome, reflecting operational challenges and lower profitability. This performance falls short of analyst expectations, impacting investor sentiment and market perception of the company's financial health.