What do HOOD's past earnings say about Q1 2025?

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) has demonstrated strong performance in its first quarter of 2025, with earnings and revenue exceeding expectations. Here's a detailed analysis based on past earnings reports and estimates:

1. Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Revenue Estimates:
   • For Q1 2025, HOOD's estimated EPS was $0.37, which represents a significant improvement from the previous year's EPS of $0.18.
   • The estimated revenue for the quarter was $839.14 million, indicating a substantial increase from the $441 million reported in the same quarter of the previous year.

2. Actual Performance Compared to Estimates:
   • HOOD surpassed earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $0.18 in Q1 2024, which was better than the estimated loss of $0.01 per share for the quarter.
   • Revenue for the quarter was $618 million, exceeding estimates by $63.04 million.
3. Revenue Growth Drivers:
   • Transaction-based revenues saw a 59% year-over-year increase, reaching $329 million, primarily fueled by cryptocurrency revenue, which surged by 232% to $126 million.
   • Options revenue also experienced growth, rising 16% to $154 million, and equities revenue increased by 44% to $39 million.
   • Net interest revenues grew by 22% to $254 million, driven by higher interest-earning assets and short-term interest rates.
   • Other revenues, including Gold subscription revenue, contributed to the overall increase, with a 35% year-over-year rise to $35 million.
4. Customer Growth and Asset Under Custody (AUC):
   • Funded customer accounts increased by 810,000 to 23.9 million, reflecting a significant expansion in the company's customer base.
   • Assets under custody rose by 65% year-over-year to $129.6 billion, largely due to higher equity and cryptocurrency valuations, as well as continued net deposits.
   • Monthly active users grew by 16% to 13.7 million, and average revenue per user increased by 35% to $104.
5. Future Outlook:
   • HOOD expects adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation to be between $1.85 billion and $1.95 billion for the full year 2024.
   • The company is optimistic about continued growth, with Q2 off to a strong start, and April being the highest month so far for net deposits and gold subscriber growth.

In conclusion, HOOD's past earnings performance indicates a strong likelihood of continued growth in Q1 2025, driven by robust revenue streams, customer expansion, and increasing asset holdings under custody.