Help me understand the next upcoming 90 days for the tarrif negotiation and market reaction

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4/17/2025 05:50am

Aime

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about the upcoming 90 days for tariff negotiations and market reactions. The user wants to understand what's happening next and how the markets might react. 

First, I need to go through the references provided. The EU and the US have agreed to a 90-day pause on retaliatory tariffs. The EU is suspending their countermeasures, and the US has lowered its tariffs to 10% for most countries except China, which is now at 125%. This pause is meant to allow negotiations. 

Looking at the market reactions, there was a significant rally after the announcement, especially in tech stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw big jumps. Analysts are mixed—some see this as a relief, others worry about future uncertainties. 

I should structure the answer with key points: the negotiation timeline, market forecasts, sector-specific reactions, and risks. Need to cite the references properly. Also, include visualizations for the queries mentioned in the references. 

Wait, the user mentioned the NASDAQ Composite Index. Since the user is interested in that, I should highlight how tech stocks are reacting. The references mention tech companies like Nvidia and ASML being affected, so that's relevant. 

Also, the user's profile shows a focus on market sentiment and news-driven strategies. So emphasizing the impact of the tariff pause on market sentiment and potential volatility is important. 

Need to check if there are any expert analyses or forecasts in the references. References 16, 17, 18, 21, 31, and 32 have relevant info. For example, BlackRock's analysis on growth and inflation, and the mixed reactions from analysts. 

Make sure to mention the risks, like the possibility of tariffs resuming if negotiations fail, and the ongoing China-US tensions. Also, the EU's "zero-for-zero" proposal and the US's sector-specific demands. 

Visualizations are required for the queries in the references. The user's question includes "Upcoming 90-day tariff negotiation timeline between EU and US" and "Market forecasts for next 90 days post-tariff pause announcement," but those references (15 and 20) have no results. However, other references like 16, 17, 18, 21, 31, 32 have data. Need to include visual tags for those queries where applicable. 

Wait, the visualization requirement says to use the exact query from the references. The user's question includes two queries, but the references for those have no results. However, other references have data. Maybe the visualizations should be for the queries that have results. For example, reference 16 has a query about market forecasts, but the results are 0. Hmm, maybe the visualizations are for the queries in the references that have data. Let me check the references again. 

Looking at the references, numbers 15 and 20 have queries with 0 results. But others like 16, 17, 18, 21, 31, 32 have data. The user's question includes two queries, but the references for those have no results. So perhaps the visualizations should be for the queries that have data in the references. For example, reference 16's query is "Market forecasts for next 90 days post-tariff pause announcement," but the results are 0. Wait, no, the user's question includes two queries, but the references for those have no results. So maybe the visualizations are not applicable here. But the user's question includes those queries, so perhaps the visualizations should be included even if the results are 0. But the instructions say to use the exact query from the references. Since the user's question includes those queries, but the references for those have 0 results, maybe the visualizations are not required. Alternatively, perhaps the visualizations are for the queries in the references that have data. 

Wait, the visualization requirement says: "All <References> with field 'Query' must be visualized, use format of "<visual>Query</visual>", where 'Query' must match exactly with query in <References>." So if a reference has a 'Query' field, even if the results are 0, it needs to be visualized. For example, reference 15 has a query "Upcoming 90-day tariff negotiation timeline between EU and US" with 0 results. So the visualization should be included as <visual>Upcoming 90-day tariff negotiation timeline between EU and US</visual>. Similarly for reference 20. 

But the user's question is about the next 90 days, so the answer should focus on that. The key points are the negotiation timeline, market forecasts, sector reactions, and risks. Need to structure the answer with headings, bold key terms, and citations. 

Also, the user's profile mentions interest in NASDAQ, so highlighting tech sector reactions is important. References 17 and 18 mention tech stocks like Apple, Nvidia, and ASML. 

In conclusion, the answer should start with a summary, then break down into sections: negotiation timeline, market forecasts, sector-specific reactions, and risks. Include visualizations for the queries in references 15 and 20, even if they have 0 results. Make sure to cite all relevant references properly.

Summary:
The next 90 days will be pivotal for resolving transatlantic trade tensions, with the EU and US leveraging the tariff moratorium to negotiate a "zero-for-zero" deal. Market reactions have been volatile but show cautious optimism, driven by relief from near-term tariff risks. Below is a detailed analysis of the negotiation timeline, sector-specific impacts, and risks.

1. Tariff Negotiation Timeline: Key Milestones

April 15–July 15, 2025: EU and US negotiators aim to finalize a "zero-for-zero" tariff agreement on industrial goods, including steel, aluminum, and autos ¹².
July 15, 2025: If no progress is made, the EU’s retaliatory tariffs (targeting $23B in US goods like bourbon, motorcycles, and semiconductors) will kick in ¹².
Ongoing: The US is pushing for sector-specific concessions, such as European chemical firms relocating production to the US ⁴.

2. Market Forecasts: Near-Term Volatility with Long-Term Risks

Short-Term Rally: The 90-day pause triggered a 7–12% surge in US equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq) on April 9, 2025, reversing prior losses ⁵⁶.
Mixed Analyst Views:
- Bullish: Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees "massive negotiations" leading to a "frictionless trade deal" ⁸.
- Bearish: BlackRock warns of a 0% GDP growth and 3.8% inflation if tariffs remain high, citing potential supply chain disruptions ⁹.
- Uncertainty: Analysts like Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha estimate a 35–45% U.S. recession risk due to lingering trade uncertainty ¹⁰.

3. Sector-Specific Market Reactions

Tech Sector:
- Nvidia (NVDA) and ASML Holding (ASML) face indirect risks from China-US tensions (125% tariffs on Chinese imports) ⁸¹¹.
- Apple (AAPL) and semiconductor firms may benefit from reduced EU-US tariff risks ⁸.
Steel/Auto:
- US steelmakers (e.g., Nucor (NUE)) and European automakers (e.g., Volkswagen) see near-term relief but long-term exposure to sector-specific tariffs ⁴¹¹.
Consumer Goods:
- EU tariffs on US bourbon and jeans (e.g., LVMH, Levi Strauss) remain a wildcard if negotiations fail ²³.

4. Risks to Monitor

China-US Escalation: The 125% tariff on Chinese imports could trigger further retaliatory measures, disrupting global supply chains ¹²¹¹.
Negotiation Deadlock: Failure to reach a "zero-for-zero" deal by July 15 could reignite market volatility ⁴¹⁰.
Macro Risks: Rising inflation (due to tariffs) and slower growth could pressure equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors ¹⁰⁹.

Conclusion:
The next 90 days offer a critical window for resolving transatlantic trade tensions, with markets pricing in a "best-case" scenario of a negotiated deal. Investors should remain vigilant to sector-specific risks and monitor progress in EU-US talks. For NASDAQ-focused portfolios, tech stocks tied to global supply chains (e.g., Nvidia, ASML) warrant close attention.

Source:

1. The EU will put tariff retaliation on hold for 90 days to match Trump's pause