Help me understand the next upcoming 90 days for the tarrif negotiation and market reaction

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4/17/2025 01:31pm

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The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about the upcoming 90 days of tariff negotiations and market reactions. The user is interested in how this period will unfold and what the market might do. They mentioned the NASDAQ Composite, so I should focus on tech-heavy sectors and maybe some specific stocks or indices related to that.

First, I need to go through all the references provided. The EU is suspending retaliatory tariffs for 90 days to match Trump's pause, which is a key point. The EU's move is to allow negotiations, but they're warning that if talks don't go well, they'll reimpose those tariffs. Similarly, other countries like Japan and Canada are also in talks. The 90-day window is crucial because it's a period where both sides can negotiate without immediate retaliation.

Looking at the market reactions, there's been volatility. The S&P 500 had a 5% plunge on April 10 after the initial tariff announcements but then recovered some with the pause. The NASDAQ, which is tech-heavy, might be sensitive to tariffs on tech components, especially if there are exemptions or not. The user's interest in NASDAQ suggests they care about tech stocks, so I should highlight how tech sectors might be affected.

References 6 and 7 mention that the Treasury Secretary is aiming for clarity in the next 90 days, which could stabilize markets if policies become predictable. However, the uncertainty around Trump's approach, as seen in reference 18, where analysts warn that the 10% tariff is still a massive escalation, could lead to continued volatility.

The sector-specific impacts are important. Reference 19 from Barclays points out that materials, discretionary, industrials, tech, and healthcare are most at risk. For the NASDAQ, tech is a big part, so any tariffs on semiconductors or electronics could hit companies like Intel or ASML. Reference 31 mentions tariff exemptions on tech products like smartphones and computers, which might help tech stocks, but the uncertainty remains.

China's response is another critical factor. They raised their tariffs to 125% (reference 17), which could lead to a trade war escalation. The U.S. is also targeting China with higher tariffs, which affects global supply chains. The user's interest in the NASDAQ might include companies exposed to China, so this could be a risk factor.

The role of the U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, is highlighted in references 21, 22, and 23. His statements about moving manufacturing back to the U.S. and the lack of direct talks with China could influence market sentiment. If there's progress in negotiations, especially with the EU and other major partners, markets might stabilize. However, if not, expect more downward pressure.

The user's short to medium-term horizon means they're looking for actionable insights in the next 90 days. The key points to cover are the negotiation timelines, potential sector-specific impacts, market volatility drivers, and how the NASDAQ might react based on tech sector exposure.

I should structure the answer with clear sections: negotiation priorities, sector impacts, market drivers, and a conclusion. Use the references to back up each point, especially the EU's 90-day suspension (references 1-5, 11, 12), the U.S. targeting specific sectors (references 16, 17, 18), and the market reactions (references 6, 7, 31, 32, 33). Also, include the visualization for the query about the 90-day schedule (reference 15) and the sector-specific impacts (reference 20, even though it has 0 results, maybe explain the lack of data but discuss the sectors anyway).

Make sure to cite each reference properly with [^Number]. Highlight the NASDAQ's tech focus and how tariff exemptions or sector-specific tariffs could affect it. Also, mention the uncertainty around Trump's policies and how that affects investor sentiment. Conclude with a summary of the risks and opportunities in the next 90 days, aligning with the user's interest in the NASDAQ and short-term market moves.

Concluding Statement: The next 90 days will be pivotal for resolving global trade tensions, with the EU-US tariff negotiations and China’s escalating trade war serving as critical focal points. Market reactions will hinge on progress in these talks, sector-specific tariff impacts, and investor sentiment toward policy clarity. Below is a detailed breakdown:

1. Tariff Negotiation Priorities & Key Players

EU-US Talks: The EU has suspended retaliatory tariffs on $23 billion of U.S. goods for 90 days, conditional on "satisfactory" negotiations ¹². Key demands include reducing U.S. steel/aluminum tariffs (25% currently) and addressing supply chain disruptions. The EU emphasizes a "zero-for-zero" tariff agreement ⁴⁵.
China: The U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% (from 104%) on April 9, while China retaliated with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods ⁶⁷. Both sides are dug in, with no direct talks scheduled ⁸. The WTO warns of an 80% decline in U.S.-China trade if tensions persist ⁶.
Japan & Others: Japan faces a 24% tariff on autos and steel, with U.S. negotiators prioritizing "market access" for U.S. agricultural exports ⁹¹⁰. Mexico and Canada remain exempt from the 90-day pause but still face 25% tariffs on autos ¹¹¹².

upcoming 90-day's stock code include other major trading partners(5)

upcoming 90-day's stock code include japan(5)

upcoming 90-day's stock code include eu-us(5)

upcoming 90-day's stock code include china(5)

upcoming 90-day's stock code include canada(5)

upcoming 90-day's stock code include other major trading partners ; upcoming 90-day's stock code include japan ; upcoming 90-day's stock code include eu-us ; upcoming 90-day's stock code include china ; upcoming 90-day's stock code include canada(5)

last-price	last-change%
8.28	0.12%
1.33	3.10%
28.17	3.00%
11.44	-2.22%

Ticker
JOFJapan Smaller Capitalization Fund
EUenCore Energy
CNQCanadian Natural Resources
CHNTHE CHINA FUND

View 4 results more

2. Sector-Specific Market Impacts

Tech Sector (NASDAQ Focus):
- Semiconductors & Electronics: U.S. tariffs on Chinese tech imports (e.g., TSMC, Intel) and EU retaliatory measures on U.S. tech goods (e.g., Apple, Microsoft) could disrupt supply chains. However, recent exemptions for smartphones and computers provided temporary relief ¹³.
- AI Manufacturing: Companies like Nvidia (planning a $500B U.S. AI infrastructure push) face uncertainty due to potential tariffs on imported components ¹³.
Materials & Industrials: Steel and aluminum tariffs (25% U.S. baseline) will pressure global manufacturers. The EU’s countermeasures include tariffs on U.S. industrial goods (e.g., yachts, machinery) ²³.
Consumer Goods: U.S. tariffs on EU agricultural products (e.g., soybeans, ice cream) and China’s 125% tariffs on U.S. consumer goods (e.g., pharmaceuticals) could lead to price hikes ¹⁴⁷.

3. Market Drivers & Volatility Triggers

Policy Uncertainty: Trump’s "tariff-as-negotiation-tool" strategy (e.g., 90-day pauses, sector-specific hikes) creates unpredictability. Investors fear a repeat of the 2022-2023 trade war, which shaved 4.7% off S&P 500 earnings ¹⁵.
Stock Market Reactions:
- Tech Rally: NASDAQ rose 0.6% on April 14 after tariff exemptions for tech components ¹³. However, broader market volatility persists (e.g., S&P 500 plunged 5% on April 10) ¹⁶.
- Geopolitical Risks: China’s 125% tariffs on U.S. goods and U.S. restrictions on Chinese state-owned enterprises (e.g., airlines halting Boeing orders) could deepen economic tensions ¹⁷.
Macro Risks: Goldman Sachs warns of a 45% recession probability in the next year due to tariff-driven inflation and reduced global trade ⁷.

4. Strategic Takeaways for Investors

Tech Sector Opportunities: Monitor tariff exemptions for semiconductor and AI infrastructure (e.g., Nvidia’s U.S. manufacturing push) ¹³.
China Exposure: Avoid direct investments in U.S. companies reliant on Chinese markets (e.g., pharmaceuticals, autos) until clarity emerges ⁷¹⁷.
EU-US Progress: A "zero-for-zero" agreement could stabilize industrial and consumer goods sectors, benefiting companies like Caterpillar (industrial) and Coca-Cola (agricultural) ³¹⁴.

Conclusion

The next 90 days will test the resilience of global supply chains and investor patience. While the NASDAQ’s tech-heavy composition offers potential upside from tariff exemptions, the broader market remains vulnerable to policy-induced volatility. Investors should prioritize diversification (e.g., defensive sectors like utilities) and real-time policy tracking to navigate this high-risk period.

Source:

1. The EU will put tariff retaliation on hold for 90 days to match Trump's pause