Help me understand the next upcoming 90 days for the tarrif negotiation and market reaction
4/18/2025 03:04am
Aime
The deep research logic is organized as follows:
Okay, let's tackle this question about the next 90 days of tariff negotiations and market reactions. The user is interested in understanding what's coming up, especially since they focus on the NASDAQ Composite, which is tech-heavy. I need to make sure I cover the key points from the references provided.
First, looking at the references, there's a lot about the EU and US putting tariffs on hold for 90 days. The EU suspended their retaliatory measures on April 10th, matching Trump's pause. That's important because it shows both sides are trying to negotiate. The EU's leader mentioned they want to give negotiations a chance but warned that if they're not satisfactory, the countermeasures will kick in. So, the next 90 days are critical for both sides to reach an agreement.
Then, there's info about other countries like Japan and Mexico lining up for trade deals during this pause. The US is in rapid negotiations with 15 countries, including Japan, which had a delegation in Washington. Japan's envoy said they want a deal within 90 days. This indicates that the US is prioritizing key trading partners to minimize economic disruption. The Treasury Secretary mentioned clarity on policies over the next 90 days, which is a positive sign for markets looking for stability.
The market reactions have been mixed. After the initial tariff announcements, there was a significant drop in stock markets, but a partial recovery followed the 90-day pause. However, the NASDAQ, which is tech-heavy, is still under pressure because tech companies rely on global supply chains that could be disrupted by tariffs. The references mention that tech sectors might not get exemptions, which is a concern. For example, Nvidia faced a $5.5B charge due to export restrictions to China, leading to a stock plunge. This shows that even with a pause, uncertainty remains, especially in tech.
Commodity prices like crude oil have seen some volatility. The EIA reported a slight increase in inventories, but prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions. Steel and semiconductors are also affected, with potential price hikes impacting industries like automotive and tech. The automotive sector, for instance, could see price increases of up to $12,200 per vehicle due to tariffs, which might affect consumer spending and corporate margins.
Institutional investors, like hedge funds and pension funds, have suffered losses. The top US pension funds lost $169B in paper value after the tariff shock, indicating that even institutional investors are struggling with the volatility. Hedge funds missed the relief rally, showing that market sentiment is still shaky and that investors are adjusting their positions cautiously.
Looking ahead, the key deadlines are the 90-day pause ending on July 16th. The US needs to finalize deals with the "big 15" economies, including the EU, Japan, and Mexico. If these negotiations fail, retaliatory tariffs could resume, leading to further market instability. The NASDAQ's tech-heavy composition makes it vulnerable to any negative outcomes, especially if semiconductor and tech tariffs aren't resolved.
The user's interest in the NASDAQ suggests they're concerned about tech sector performance. I should highlight the risks to tech companies from ongoing uncertainty and potential tariffs. Also, the mention of a possible stagflation scenario from the Fed's comments adds another layer of risk, as higher inflation could lead to tighter monetary policies, which would pressure tech stocks.
In conclusion, the next 90 days are pivotal. Successful negotiations could stabilize markets and reduce volatility, especially for the NASDAQ. However, any missteps could exacerbate existing market tensions, leading to further declines, particularly in tech. The user should be advised to monitor the progress of these negotiations closely and be prepared for potential swings in the market.
Concluding Statement:
The next 90 days (April 17–July 16, 2025) will be pivotal for resolving global trade tensions, with tariff negotiations between the U.S. and key partners (EU, Japan, Mexico) under intense scrutiny. Market reactions will hinge on progress toward durable trade agreements, clarity on U.S. tariff policies, and institutional investor positioning. Below is a detailed breakdown:
1. Tariff Negotiation Deadlines & Key Players
- U.S.-EU Talks: The EU suspended retaliatory tariffs on $23B of U.S. goods for 90 days to align with Trump’s pause 12. A failure to reach a "zero-for-zero" tariff agreement by July 16 could trigger resumed EU countermeasures, risking supply chain disruptions in sectors like automotive, tech, and agriculture 24.
- U.S.-Japan Negotiations: Japan’s envoy emphasized a goal of finalizing a deal within 90 days, with both sides prioritizing automotive and semiconductor tariffs 56. Japan faces a 10% baseline U.S. tariff, plus additional levies on steel and aluminum 5.
- U.S.-Mexico Talks: Mexico is part of the "big 15" economies in active U.S. negotiations, with a focus on agricultural and manufacturing tariffs 6.
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april 17-2025's uos(uos value)(5743)region include us(4917)april 17-2025's uos(uos value);region include us(4368)
last-price  | last-change% | UOS(UOS Value)2024.07.01  | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.38 | 0.00 | 100.00 | United States |
| 11.69 | 0.00 | 100.00 | United States |
| 37.49 | 0.00 | 98.67 | United States |
| 10.85 | 0.00 | 95.11 | United States |
| 11.25 | 0.00 | 86.67 | United States |
| 5.10 | 17.24% | 86.54 | United States |
| 0.26 | 4.88% | 85.97 | United States |
| 43.00 | 0.00 | 83.76 | United States |
| 11.20 | 0.58% | 83.10 | United States |
| 377.40 | -1.20% | 82.38 | United States |
Ticker |
|---|
| ALCYUAlchemy Investments-U |
| MCAAUMountain-U |
| MAYSJ.W. Mays |
| PFTAUPerception III-U |
| AFJKUAimei Health-U |
| FOXXFoxx Development |
| ABPAbpro Holdings |
| WLYBJohn Wiley & Sons B |
| DMYYdMY Squared |
| DJCODaily Journal |
View 4368 results
2. Market Sentiment & Risk Factors
- Tech Sector Vulnerability: U.S. tariffs on semiconductors, computer hardware, and smartphones remain unresolved, with no exemptions confirmed 7. Companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) face direct risks from U.S.-China tech decoupling, as seen in its $5.5B revenue hit from export restrictions 8. The NASDAQ Composite, which tracks tech-heavy stocks, is likely to remain sensitive to tariff-related volatility.
- Commodity Price Pressures: Crude oil prices (+1.99% on April 17) and steel tariffs could drive input-cost inflation, squeezing margins for manufacturers 910. Semiconductor prices may also rise due to U.S. export controls targeting China 7.
- Geopolitical Risks: A U.S.-China tariff standoff (China faces 145% tariffs) could escalate, with Fed Chair Powell warning of stagflation risks from prolonged trade tensions 8.
3. Institutional Investor Reactions
- Pension Fund Losses: Top U.S. pension funds suffered an estimated $169B paper loss in equities after the April 2 tariff shock, highlighting systemic risks from tariff-induced economic uncertainty 11.
- Hedge Fund Underperformance: Global long/short hedge funds gained only 0.98% during the April 9–10 relief rally, underperforming the S&P 500’s 9.5% surge, due to lingering short positions 12.
4. Critical Milestones
| Date | Event | Impact on Markets |
|---|---|---|
| April 17–25 | U.S.-Japan ministerial talks; U.S.-EU technical discussions | Potential sector-specific tariff reductions |
| May 1–15 | U.S.-China semiconductor export policy reviews | Risks of tech decoupling |
| July 16 | 90-day tariff pause expiration; EU countermeasure trigger date | Binary outcome: trade deal or resumed tariffs |
5. NASDAQ-Specific Risks & Opportunities
- Tech Sector Exposure: The NASDAQ’s heavy weighting in semiconductor, AI, and cloud-computing stocks (e.g., NVDA, AMD, TSMC) makes it vulnerable to tariff-driven supply chain disruptions 78.
- Policy Clarity: A successful U.S.-EU/Japan deal could stabilize global supply chains, benefiting tech firms reliant on cross-border production 136.
Final Outlook
The next 90 days will test the U.S.’s ability to balance protectionist policies with economic stability. A failure to secure meaningful trade deals risks prolonged market turbulence, particularly for the NASDAQ. Investors should monitor progress on the "big 15" negotiations, Fed policy signals, and institutional fund rebalancing. A stagflationary environment remains a baseline risk, but a "clear policy path" (as promised by Treasury Secretary Bessent 13) could unlock a technical rebound in tech stocks.
Key Watchlist: S&P 500 (industrial/materials sectors), NASDAQ (semiconductors), crude oil, and U.S.-China trade rhetoric.
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