Does grrr stock look bullish to you. I see options up to 36 dollars a share before August 29th. Also fintel is reporting more available shrt shares available. What do you reckon?
8/21/2025 04:20am
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The deep research logic is organized as follows:
Okay, let's tackle this question about GRRR stock. The user is asking if GRRR looks bullish, especially with options up to $36 before August 29th and more short shares available. They also mentioned Fintel's report on short shares.
First, I need to check the references provided. The user's query includes several data points from the references, so I should start by reviewing those.
Looking at the references, there's data on the earnings release date (August 14, 2025) , price trend forecasts , support and resistance levels , trend similarity-based price forecasts , lock-up agreements ending on August 17 [^5-8], recent earnings results [^12-16], and options activity .
The user mentioned options up to $36, which is significantly higher than the current price of $17.31 . The trend similarity forecast shows a bullish trend with a mean forecast price around $18.41 to $18.59 for the next few days, peaking at $18.88 on September 11 . However, the support and resistance analysis suggests a bearish forecast with a narrow resistance level around $18.47 .
The lock-up agreements ending on August 17 might impact liquidity and short interest. The user noted more short shares available, which could indicate a potential short squeeze if the stock moves up. However, the current short availability is zero as of March 2025 , but the lock-up ending might change that.
The recent earnings (August 14) showed strong revenue growth (90.2% YoY) but a net loss [^12-16]. The company has a $5B contract pipeline and is expanding into Southeast Asia, which could drive future growth. Analysts are mixed, with some recommending a buy ahead of earnings [^6,11,19].
The options data from Fintel shows a put/call ratio of 0.29, indicating bullish sentiment . However, the user is pointing out more short shares available, which might be a recent development not captured in the provided data.
Putting this together, the stock has mixed signals. The technical indicators are bullish in the short term but bearish in the medium term. The fundamental data shows growth but also risks like a net loss and high debt. The lock-up ending could increase supply, but the recent earnings beat might drive short-term momentum. The user's interest in options suggests they're looking for high upside, but the data doesn't support a $36 target in the near term.
I need to structure the answer to address the user's points: the bullish case, bearish case, and the options situation. Also, consider the user's profile focusing on China/Tencent and AI, but GRRR is more about AI solutions in security and IoT, which might align with their interests.
Make sure to cite all relevant references and include the visualization for the earnings release date. The conclusion should be balanced, highlighting the mixed signals and the need for caution despite the potential upside.
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**Conclusion** ๐ฏ
GRRR (Gorilla Technology) presents a **mixed outlook** with **bullish short-term momentum** but **bearish medium-term risks**. While recent earnings beat and technical setups suggest upside potential, fundamental challenges like a net loss, high debt, and lock-up expirations temper optimism. The $36 option target appears **overly aggressive** given current data, but the stock could see volatility ahead of the August 29th options expiration.
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### ๐ **Bullish Case**
| Metric | Data/Analysis |
|----------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| **Earnings Beat** | Q2 2025 revenue surged 90.2% YoY to $39.3M, with adjusted EBITDA of $5.7M . |
| **Technical Setup** | Bullish trend (10-day duration) with 60% continuation probability . Current price ($17.31) near narrow resistance ($18.47) . |
| **Options Activity** | Put/Call Ratio (0.29) indicates bullish sentiment; short interest may rise post-lockup . |
| **Growth Catalysts** | $5B contract pipeline, Southeast Asia expansion, and AI-driven solutions . |
**Key Takeaway**: Short-term momentum could push GRRR towards $18.50โ$19.00 (mean forecast for Aug 20โ29) .
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### ๐ **Bearish Risks**
| Metric | Data/Analysis |
|----------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| **Fundamental Weakness** | Net loss ($8.5M) and negative EV/EBITDA (-$32.55M) . Debt remains elevated ($18.1M) . |
| **Lock-Up Expirations** | Shares, options, and warrants locked until Aug 17, 2025 . Short interest may surge post-lockup . |
| **Valuation Stretch** | Trailing P/E unavailable due to losses; EV/EBITDA inapplicable . |
| **Competition** | High competition in AI security space; execution risks remain . |
**Key Takeaway**: Medium-term risks (e.g., debt, losses) could cap upside below $20.00.
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### ๐ **Options Market Perspective**
| Metric | Data/Analysis |
|----------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| **Option Targets** | Aug 29, 2025 options suggest upside to $36.00, but current forecasts (mean: $17.34โ$18.59) donโt support this . |
| **Short Interest** | Short availability hit zero in March 2025; post-lockup surge possible . |
| **Implied Volatility** | High IV (34โ68% CI) reflects uncertainty . |
**Key Takeaway**: $36.00 target is speculative; focus on $17.34โ$18.59 range for Aug 20โ29 .
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### ๐ฏ **Final Take**
GRRR is a **high-risk, high-reward** play with **short-term upside potential** (bullish technicals, earnings beat) but **long-term risks** (debt, losses). The $36.00 option target is **unrealistic** based on current data. For income-focused investors, **stay cautious**; for growth hunters, consider a **small speculative position** with tight stops.