Give me the most accurate forecast you can for meli stock, by the end of the year.

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about MercadoLibre (MELI) stock forecast for the end of 2025. The user is a tech enthusiast interested in high-growth stocks, so I need to focus on growth drivers and analyst consensus. 

First, I'll check the references provided. There's a lot of data here, including analyst ratings, price targets, institutional ownership changes, and technical analysis. The user wants the most accurate forecast, so I should prioritize recent data and consensus views.

Looking at the analyst ratings, Scotiabank just initiated coverage with a "sector outperform" rating and a $3,500 price target, which is a 47.77% upside from the current price of $2,384.90 . Other firms like UBS and Goldman Sachs have lower targets, but the average target is $2,690.29 . However, the latest query result from the user's data shows a 2025 consensus price target of $2,687.25 . That's a bit lower than the Scotiabank target but still a significant upside.

The user's profile mentions interest in high-growth tech companies, so I should highlight MELI's position in Latin American e-commerce and fintech. The company reported strong Q1 2025 results with 37% YoY revenue growth and EPS beating estimates by $1.92 . This shows operational strength and market leadership.

Institutional ownership is 87.62%, with recent activity showing some firms increasing stakes (like Avantax and Assetmark) and others reducing (Premier Fund Managers) . This mixed activity suggests varying confidence among institutions but overall high ownership, which can indicate stability.

Technical analysis from the user's data shows a short-term bullish signal with a 5-day moving average suggesting a buy, but the 50-day and 200-day averages are bearish . The RSI is neutral at 48.27 . This mixed technical outlook means the stock might face consolidation before a breakout.

The user is concerned about execution risks and market sentiment. MELI's short interest ratio is 2.0, which is moderate, indicating some bearish bets but not extreme . The short interest dropped 5.5% recently, suggesting some bears are covering . This could lead to a short squeeze if the stock starts moving upwards.

Putting it all together, the forecast should balance the bullish analyst targets with the technical and market risks. The user is looking for a high-growth stock, so the upside potential from the Scotiabank target is key, but the average target is more moderate. The final forecast should reflect the range between the average and the highest target, considering the user's preference for upside potential.

I need to structure the answer with a clear conclusion, followed by detailed analysis sections. Use tables to present key data like price targets, growth metrics, and technical indicators. Make sure to cite all sources properly and include the visualization for the query result. Also, address the user's interests in high-growth and potential risks they care about.

### **Conclusion** 🎯
**MercadoLibre (MELI)** presents a **bullish outlook** for 2025, driven by **Latin American e-commerce growth**, **fintech expansion**, and **strong analyst consensus**. However, **macroeconomic risks** and **high valuation** pose headwinds. Based on **trend similarity forecasting** and **analyst targets**, **price targets range from $2,687 to $3,500** by year-end, with upside potential of **12.8% to 47.8%** from the current price of $2,384.90 .

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### **Analysis** 📊

#### 1. **Price Forecast: Key Data**
| Metric | Value (2025-07-29) |
|----------------------------|-----------------------|
| **Current Price** | $2,384.90 |
| **Analyst Avg. Target** | $2,687.25 |
| **Highest Target** | $3,500.00 |
| **Expected Upside** | +12.8% to +47.8% |
| **Short Interest Ratio** | 2.0 (moderate bearish sentiment) |

#### 2. **Growth Drivers** 🚀
- **E-commerce Penetration**: Latin America’s e-commerce penetration is ~15% of retail, lagging the U.S. by a decade. MELI leads the shift from offline to online retail, with **37% YoY revenue growth** and **43.6% net income growth** .
- **Fintech Expansion**: Mercado Pago is the #1 fintech in Mexico, Argentina, and Chile, with **$494M net income** and **1.8M families relying on MELI for income** .
- **Market Sentiment**: The stock hit a **52-week high** at $2,645.22 in 2025, reflecting **investor optimism** .

#### 3. **Risks** ⚠️
- **Macroeconomic Volatility**: Latin America’s GDP growth is projected at ~3.5% in 2025, with inflation risks in Brazil and Argentina .
- **High Valuation**: MELI’s **P/E ratio of 58.25** and **P/B ratio of 26.2** reflect high expectations, making the stock vulnerable to earnings misses .
- **Competition**: Amazon and Alibaba are expanding in Latin America, with Amazon’s logistics network posing a threat .

#### 4. **Analyst Consensus** 📊
- **Rating**: **“Moderate Buy”** (16 analysts: 13 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell) .
- **Price Targets**: Range from $2,100 to $3,500, with a median of $2,690.29 .
- **Earnings Outlook**: Q2 EPS expected at $9.74 (+43.6% YoY), with FY2025 EPS of $43.96 (+37.0% YoY) .

#### 5. **Technical Outlook** 📈
- **Short-Term**: Price likely to consolidate between **$2,347–$2,615** (support/resistance levels) in Q3, with upside to **$2,615** by August .
- **Long-Term**: Year-end target range **$2,687–$3,500**, with an average price of $3,179.69 (+33.3% upside) .

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### **Final Take** 🎯
MELI is a **high-risk, high-reward** play for tech investors. The **e-commerce boom** and **fintech disruption** in Latin America offer **significant upside**, but **macroeconomic risks** and **valuation concerns** warrant caution. For a **tech enthusiast** focused on high-growth stocks and AI-driven opportunities, MELI aligns with your interests but requires **close monitoring** of earnings and macroeconomic developments.

**Final Forecast**: **$2,687–$3,500** by year-end (12.8% to 47.8% upside from $2,384.90).