Here is the daily analysis for AUD/JPY:
- Technical Analysis: The AUD/JPY pair is currently neutral but holds above the 100.00 level, supported by risk-on sentiment and weakness in the Yen against the US Dollar. If the pair clears 101.40, it could target further upside toward 102.00 and 102.50, with potential resistance at 103.00. A drop below 100.00 would bring support at the top of the Ichimoku Cloud around 99.70/80, with additional support at 98.771.
- Market Sentiment: The sentiment around AUD/JPY is mixed, with a risk-on tone supporting the Australian Dollar, but the Japanese Yen also benefiting from hawkish remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which capped gains for the cross23.
- Interest Rate Expectations: The expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain current interest rates in June provides some support to the Australian Dollar. Conversely, the Japanese central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged may weigh on the Japanese Yen, potentially providing some support to the AUD/JPY cross2.
- Support and Resistance Levels: The current support level for AUD/JPY is at 99.70/80, and the resistance level is at 103.00. The pair is currently trading near 104.30, with a slight daily change of 0.19%4.
- Moving Averages: The 20-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is at 104.00, and the 50-Day SMA is at 102.41. These moving averages are acting as support levels, with the pair finding buying interest above these levels.
- Fibonacci Retracement: The 100.00 level is a significant Fibonacci Retracement, and the pair has been trading above this level, indicating a bullish sentiment.
In conclusion, AUD/JPY is currently in a neutral to bullish trend, with the pair trading above the 100.00 level. However, the risk of a rate hike is low, and the RBA's response to high inflation data could keep current high rates for longer, which provides some support to the Australian Dollar. Investors should monitor the pair's performance against the 100.00 level and broader market sentiment.