GBP/USD is expected to be neutral in the next 24 hours. Here's the analysis to support this conclusion:
- Recent Performance and Market Sentiment: The GBP/USD pair has experienced a general decline, with a recent low below 1.3100. The pair's technical outlook suggests oversold conditions, but the bearish bias remains intact1.
- Macroeconomic Factors: The focus remains on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is due later on Friday. The UK's dovish comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey have triggered a Pound Sterling selloff, and the UK's interest rate cut expectations might weigh on the pair23.
- Technical Analysis: The pair's technical picture highlights that the bearish bias remains intact, but the recent rebound suggests a technical correction may be in the works. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart slumped below 20, reflecting oversold conditions. If the pair stages a technical correction, 1.3175 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be a point of interest1.
- Market Expectations: The market is braced for the US NFP data, which could offer some hints about the size of the November Fed rate cut. An upside surprise could dampen the hope for a 50 basis point (bps) rate reduction in the November meeting, while tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe haven flows and benefit the Greenback23.
In conclusion, the combination of a neutral technical outlook, lack of clear macroeconomic catalysts, and stable market expectations all point to a neutral forecast for the GBP/USD pair in the next 24 hours.