What is the forecast value for Peabody Energy shares?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle the user's question about the forecast value for Peabody Energy shares. First, I need to check the provided references to gather relevant data. The user is asking for a forecast, so I should look for price targets, earnings reports, and any recent news that might impact the stock price.

Looking at Reference 1, there's a BTU Analyst Average Price Target table. The average price target for Peabody Energy (BTU) is $14, while the last price is $17.56. That's a key point because the target is below the current price, which might indicate a bearish outlook. I should note that the target period is from 2025-05-16 to 2025-08-15, so it's recent enough to be relevant.

Next, Reference 3 and 4 discuss Peabody's Q2 2025 results. The company reported a net loss of $26M, a significant drop from the previous year's profit. Revenue also fell, but they raised their full-year guidance for certain segments. The earnings call transcript in Reference 6 mentions cost control and U.S. demand fundamentals, which could be positive factors. However, the stock surged post-earnings, which might indicate market optimism despite the loss.

Reference 5 mentions that analysts have set new price targets. UBS Group set a $14 target, which aligns with the average in Reference 1. Benchmark reduced their target from $26 to $23, which is still higher than the average. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock to "sell." This mixed analyst sentiment is important to highlight.

References 8, 9, and 10 talk about the potential breakup of the $3.8B deal with Anglo American due to a mine fire. This is a critical risk factor because if Peabody walks away, it could ease debt pressure but might also affect their market position. The uncertainty around this deal could impact the stock price volatility.

Putting this all together, the forecast value needs to consider the average price target, recent financial performance, analyst sentiment, and major risks like the Anglo American deal. The conclusion should balance the bearish price target with the company's operational adjustments and market optimism post-earnings. I should structure the answer with a clear conclusion first, then break down the analysis into sections like Analyst Targets, Financial Performance, Risks, and Market Sentiment. Using tables and visualizations where possible, as per the format requirements, will make the answer more engaging and informative.

### 🌟 **Conclusion**
Peabody Energy (BTU) shares are forecasted to face downward pressure in the short term, with a **$14 average price target** from analysts . However, the company’s recent operational adjustments, including cost reductions and U.S. demand resilience, could provide a floor for the stock. Key risks include the uncertain outcome of its $3.8B deal with Anglo American and ongoing volatility in global coal markets .

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### 📊 **Analysis**

#### 1. **Analyst Price Targets**
The average price target for BTU is **$14** (as of August 15, 2025), reflecting a **20% downside** from its current price of $17.56 . Recent analyst actions include:
| Analyst Firm | Rating Change | Price Target | Key Notes |
|---------------------|---------------|--------------|------------------------------------|
| UBS Group | Neutral | $14 | Cautious outlook on coal prices |
| Benchmark | Buy | $23 | Optimistic on U.S. demand |
| Wall Street Zen | Sell | N/A | Warned of financial risks |

#### 2. **Financial Performance**
Peabody reported a **$26M net loss** in Q2 2025, a **112.4% decline** YoY, driven by lower coal prices and reduced volumes . However, the company raised its FY25 guidance for PRB and Seaborne Thermal volumes, signaling confidence in U.S. demand .

#### 3. **Key Risks**
- **Anglo American Deal**: Peabody may walk away from its $3.8B bid for Anglo’s Australian mines due to a mine fire, which could ease debt pressure but also reduce its market share .
- **Coal Price Volatility**: Global coal prices fell 33% YoY in Q2, driven by oversupply and regulatory pressures .

#### 4. **Market Sentiment**
Despite the Q2 loss, BTU shares surged **19.42% month-to-date** post-earnings, reflecting optimism about cost control and legislative support for U.S. coal . The stock’s 1-year range is **$9.61–$29.94**, indicating high volatility .

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### 📉 **Final Take**
Peabody Energy’s shares are likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with upside limited by bearish analyst targets and downside mitigated by operational resilience. Investors should monitor the Anglo deal resolution and coal price trends closely.