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What is the forecast value for Bioxcel Therapeutics shares?

8/20/2025 08:47am

``` The deep research logic is organized as follows: Okay, let's tackle this question about Bioxcel Therapeutics' forecast value. The user is asking for the forecast value of BTAI shares. First, I need to check the references provided to gather all relevant data points. Looking at the references, there are several analyst price targets mentioned. Number 1 shows an average price target of $28 from August 20 to August 19, 2025. Wait, that seems a bit off because the current date is August 19, 2025, so the average target is up to that date. Then, Number 2 mentions H.C. Wainwright's Buy rating with a $10 price target. Number 8 and 14 also talk about H.C. Wainwright raising the target from $8 to $10. Number 9 from Lucid Capital Markets has a $66 target, which is way higher. Number 12 from TipRanks shows an average target of $10 with a high of $18 and low of $2. Number 19 and 20 discuss Q2 financials but don't mention price targets. Number 18 shows the stock price at $4.92 with a -13.23% change on August 19. Wait, there's a discrepancy here. The average target in Number 1 is $28, but other sources like TipRanks (Number 12) and H.C. Wainwright (Numbers 2,8,14) have lower targets. Also, Number 9 from Lucid Capital has a $66 target, which is much higher. I need to reconcile these numbers. Maybe the average in Number 1 is from a different time frame or includes more analysts. Let me check the dates. Number 1's average is from 2025-05-20 to 2025-08-19, which includes recent data. However, the latest analyst revisions after August 19 (Number 7) show 0 results, meaning no changes after that date. The user's question is about the forecast value, so I should focus on the most recent data. The latest analyst actions are from August 17 and 18, where H.C. Wainwright raised the target to $10. Lucid Capital's $66 target is from July 15, which is older. The TipRanks average of $10 (Number 12) seems to be the most recent consensus. However, the average in Number 1 is $28, which might include older targets. I need to clarify which average is more relevant. Since the user is asking for the current forecast, the latest data from August 19 would be the H.C. Wainwright's $10 target and the TipRanks average of $10. The $28 average might be outdated or include a broader range of analysts. Also, the stock price on August 19 is $4.92, which is much lower than the targets. The user's profile shows interest in the NAS Composite, suggesting a diversified approach. However, BTAI is a biotech stock with high volatility. The recent price drop of 13.23% (Number 18) indicates market uncertainty. The upcoming Phase 3 trial results (Numbers 3,4,5,10,15) are critical catalysts. If the results are positive, the stock could surge towards the $10 target. But the financials are weak (Number 4 mentions negative EBITDA and cash issues), which could be a risk. Putting this together, the forecast value is likely around $10 based on the recent analyst consensus, but there's significant upside potential if the trial succeeds. The user should be aware of the high risk due to the company's financial health and regulatory uncertainties. The $66 target from Lucid Capital is too optimistic given the current data, so I shouldn't emphasize that unless it's part of the recent consensus, which it isn't. I should structure the answer by first stating the current average target, then discuss the recent analyst actions, the upcoming catalysts, and the risks involved. Also, mention the user's preference for a diversified approach but highlight the high volatility in BTAI. Make sure to cite the references correctly and include the visualization for the average price target. ``` ### 🌟 **Conclusion** Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) shares are forecasted to reach an **average price target of $10.00** over the next 12 months, reflecting a **183% upside** from the current price of $4.92 . This consensus aligns with recent analyst upgrades and the company’s pivotal Phase 3 trial progress for BXCL501, targeting at-home treatment for agitation in bipolar disorders and schizophrenia . However, significant risks remain, including regulatory uncertainties and financial instability. --- ### 📊 **Key Forecast Details** #### 1. **Analyst Consensus** | Metric | Value | Implication | |----------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | **Average Price Target** | $10.00 | 12-month target, supported by 4 analysts with a high of $18.00 and low of $2.00 . | | **Recent Upgrades** | $10.00 | H.C. Wainwright raised its target from $8.00 to $10.00, citing FDA progress and Phase 3 data . | | **Current Stock Price** | $4.92 | 13.23% decline on August 19, 2025, reflecting market volatility . | #### 2. **Catalysts Driving the Forecast** - **Phase 3 Trial Data**: Top-line results for the SERENITY At-Home trial are expected in August 2025, with over 2,600 agitation episodes analyzed across 200+ patients . - **FDA Support**: The FDA provided favorable feedback on the planned sNDA for BXCL501, reducing regulatory risks . - **Market Potential**: The at-home treatment market for agitation is estimated to be 3-4x larger than institutional settings, with no FDA-approved therapies currently available . #### 3. **Risks to Monitor** - **Financial Health**: Negative EBITDA (-$49.85M) and limited cash reserves ($18.6M) raise liquidity concerns . - **Regulatory Delays**: Any setbacks in the sNDA submission or trial outcomes could trigger stock volatility . - **Competition**: Emerging therapies in the agitation market may impact BXCL501’s market share . --- ### 📊 **Analysis of Recent Developments** #### **Q2 2025 Financials** - **Net Loss**: $19.2M (131.2% YoY increase) . - **Revenue**: $120K (89.1% YoY decline) . - **Key Update**: Completion of the SERENITY At-Home trial database lock, with topline data expected soon . #### **Analyst Reactions** - **H.C. Wainwright**: Maintained a **Buy** rating with a $10.00 target, emphasizing the low-risk nature of the Phase 3 trial . - **Lucid Capital**: Retained a **Buy** rating but with a much higher target of $66.00, likely reflecting long-term growth potential . --- ### 🌟 **Final Takeaway** BTAI’s shares are positioned for **high volatility** but also **significant upside** if the Phase 3 trial succeeds and regulatory approvals follow. The **$10.00 price target** represents a balanced view, while the **$66.00 target** reflects extreme optimism. Given your interest in the NAS Composite Index, consider BTAI as a high-risk, high-reward addition to a diversified portfolio. Stay vigilant for trial results and financial updates. **Final Forecast**: **$10.00** (12-month average target) with a **183% upside** potential.