According to the fed latest meeting minutes, how likely are they to cut rates?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question. The user is asking about the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates based on the latest meeting minutes. First, I need to check the references provided. The user mentioned the latest meeting minutes, so I should look for the most recent ones. 

Looking at the references, Number 1 is from 2025-08-18, which is the latest. It mentions that the Fed held rates steady in July and that two governors dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point cut. The minutes are due for release on August 20, 2025. Also, Number 2 from the same date talks about the July FOMC minutes being released and markets pricing in a September cut. Number 3 from 2025-08-13 shows that most officials expect rate cuts in 2025, but some are cautious. 

Wait, the user's question is about the latest meeting minutes, which would be the July 29-30, 2025 meeting. The references mention that the minutes were released on August 13, 2025 (Number 3). However, the user is asking for the latest, which would be the August 18-19 period. But the references don't have the actual minutes from August 2025. Instead, they have the July minutes. 

So, the latest available minutes are from July 2025. According to Number 3, most officials expect rate cuts in 2025, but some are cautious. The July meeting had two dissenters favoring a cut. The market is pricing in a September cut, as mentioned in Number 2. 

The user is interested in the likelihood of a rate cut. The key points are: 
- July minutes show most expect cuts in 2025, but some are cautious. 
- Two governors dissented for a cut in July. 
- Market expectations are high for a September cut. 

I need to structure this into a conclusion, analysis, and data. The user is into China Tech and Modern Services, so maybe mention how rate cuts could affect those sectors, but the question is about the Fed's likelihood. 

Also, check if there are any other relevant references. Number 17 mentions BlackRock predicting no rate cut, but that's from July 30. Number 29 and 30 discuss rate cut probabilities dropping to 40% after the July meeting. 

Wait, the July meeting minutes (Number 3) say most expect cuts in 2025, but the market probability dropped to 40% after the July meeting (Number 29). So there's a discrepancy between the minutes and market reaction. 

I need to reconcile this. The minutes suggest a possibility of cuts, but the market saw a lower probability. The user's question is about the minutes, so focus on that. 

Also, the user's profile shows interest in tech stocks like NIO and others. Rate cuts could impact their valuations. But the question is about the Fed's likelihood, so focus on that. 

Putting it all together: The Fed's July minutes show cautious optimism for rate cuts in 2025, with some support for a September cut. However, market expectations have cooled due to inflation concerns. The user should be aware of this mixed signal when considering investments in rate-sensitive sectors.

### 🌟 **Conclusion**
The Federal Reserve’s latest July 2025 meeting minutes indicate a **cautious but open stance toward rate cuts**, with most officials expecting reductions in 2025. However, the likelihood of a September cut hinges on incoming data, particularly labor market and inflation trends. Market pricing reflects a **40-50% probability** of a 25-basis-point cut by September, down from earlier expectations due to lingering inflation risks .

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### 📊 **Analysis**
#### 1. **Fed Minutes Summary**
The July 29-30, 2025, meeting minutes reveal:
| Key Point | Details |
|-----------|---------|
| **Rate Outlook** | Most officials anticipate rate cuts in 2025, but some remain cautious about inflation risks . |
| **Dissent** | Two governors (Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller) favored a 25-basis-point cut at the July meeting, marking the first such split since 1993 . |
| **Data Dependency** | The Fed emphasized a “wait-and-see” approach, with decisions tied to August employment and inflation reports . |

#### 2. **Market Expectations**
- **September Cut Probability**: Post-July meeting, the CME FedWatch tool shows a **41.3% chance** of a 25-basis-point cut by September 2025 .
- **Longer-Term Outlook**: Analysts predict **1-2 rate cuts** by year-end, with J.P. Morgan forecasting a September cut followed by three more reductions in 2026 .

#### 3. **Key Risks**
- **Inflation**: Tariffs and supply chain disruptions remain a concern, with headline inflation projected to rise slightly in August .
- **Labor Market**: A slowdown in job creation could push the Fed toward easing, but low unemployment (4.1%) complicates the case for cuts .

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### 📊 **Data Snapshot**
| Metric | Current Level | Implications |
|--------|---------------|--------------|
| **2-Year Treasury Yield** | 3.74% | Reflects reduced rate hike expectations. |
| **10-Year Treasury Yield** | 4.295% | Indicates moderate inflation concerns. |
| **Market Pricing** | 40-50% chance of a September cut | Aligns with cautious Fed rhetoric. |

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### 🎯 **Takeaway for Investors**
The Fed’s cautious approach favors **short-term stability** but leaves room for **unexpected volatility**. For your focus on **China Tech and Modern Service stocks** (e.g., NIO, OCTO), a potential rate cut could boost valuations but also expose risks from inflation-linked currency pressures. Stay vigilant on August data releases and Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (August 22, 2025) for clearer signals .