How did FDX's Q4 2024 EPS surprise impact short-term trading?

FedEx's (FDX) Q4 2024 EPS surprise had a generally positive impact on short-term trading, though the effects varied by time frame and the specific metric of interest.

1. **3-Day Win Rate and Return**: Following the earnings release, the stock experienced a negative 3-day win rate of 35.71%, indicating that the majority of the time (approximately 64%), the stock declined in the immediate 3 days after the earnings report. However, the average 3-day return was slightly negative at -0.96%, with a maximum return of 8.66% on day 69 after the earnings release. This suggests that while there was some volatility, the stock had the potential to recover and even exceed its pre-earnings levels in the short term.

2. **10-Day Win Rate and Return**: The 10-day win rate improved to 71.43%, indicating a higher probability of the stock moving higher in the initial 10 days after the earnings report. The average 10-day return was positive at 0.98%, with a maximum return of 8.66% on day 69. This indicates that while there was some fluctuation, the stock tended to perform better in the longer term following the earnings release.
3. **30-Day Win Rate and Return**: The 30-day win rate was 57.14%, suggesting that about half of the time, the stock would rise within 30 days of the earnings report. The average 30-day return was 2.13%, with a maximum return of 8.66% on day 69. This suggests that while the stock might not always immediately react to earnings, it often exhibits a positive trend in the month following the earnings release.

In conclusion, while FedEx's Q4 2024 EPS surprise led to some short-term volatility, the stock generally exhibited positive returns in the days and weeks following the earnings report. Investors looking to trade the stock short-term should be prepared for potential fluctuations, but the historical data suggests that there is a reasonable chance of the stock moving higher in the immediate aftermath of the earnings release.