Is FCX's Q1 2025 earnings forecast optimistic?

FCX's Q1 2025 earnings forecast is not optimistic. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Estimates:
   • Scotiabank lowered FY2025 earnings estimates for Freeport-McMoRan from $1.21 to $1.12.
   • Zacks Research also reduced Q1 2025 earnings per share estimates from $0.24 to $0.22.
   • Raymond James lowered FY2025 earnings estimates from $1.79 to $1.67.
   • The consensus estimate for Q1 2025 is $0.25 EPS and $5.98 billion revenue, which is below previous estimates and market expectations.

2. Consensus and Recent Performance:
   • The consensus estimate for FCX's current full-year earnings is $1.68 per share, which is lower than the company's historical average of beating EPS estimates.
   • Since the start of the year, FCX shares have risen by 4.5%, while the broader S&P 500 index rose by 24% in the last year, indicating potential underperformance.
3. Market Concerns and Risks:
   • There are concerns about FCX's ability to export copper concentrate from Indonesia in Q1 2025 due to the expiration of the license.
   • The market has not priced in the risks of a license extension delay, which could impact production and sales.
4. Historical Performance and Beat Rates:
   • FCX has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time over the last 2 years.
   • However, over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 6 downward, and revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 4 downward.

In conclusion, the earnings forecast for FCX in Q1 2025 is reflective of a more cautious outlook among analysts, with estimates being lowered and the consensus falling short of previous forecasts. This, coupled with potential risks and concerns about export licenses and production, suggests that the forecast is not optimistic.