What factors could impact XOM's future earnings?

Exxon Mobil's (XOM) future earnings are likely to be influenced by several key factors:

1. Oil and Gas Prices: Exxon Mobil's earnings are heavily dependent on the price volatility of crude oil and natural gas. Lower oil prices and refining margins have impacted its earnings, as seen in the third quarter where lower oil prices and shrinking refining margins reduced earnings by $1.6 billion compared to the previous period. Fluctuations in energy prices can significantly affect the company's profitability.
2. Refining Margins: The company's earnings have been influenced by refining margins. For instance, the third-quarter earnings were impacted by lower refining margins. Shrinking margins can lead to a decline in earnings, as experienced by Exxon Mobil.
3. Natural Gas Prices: The price of natural gas is a critical factor affecting the company's earnings. Lower natural gas prices can impact the company's profitability, as evidenced by the expected decline in earnings due to falling natural gas prices.
4. Global Demand for Energy: Geopolitical tensions and global demand for energy can significantly impact Exxon Mobil's earnings. For example, fluctuations in global demand for energy due to geopolitical tensions have affected the company's earnings.
5. Acquisitions and Production: Recent acquisitions, such as the one of Pioneer Natural Resources, can boost production and potentially increase earnings. However, the company has warned that weak refining margins and low natural gas prices would hit its earnings despite higher production.
6. Dividend Payments: Exxon Mobil's dividend payout ratio provides insights into the company's approach towards returning value to shareholders. The sustainability of dividends and the impact on earnings can be crucial for investors evaluating the company's financial health and potential returns.

In conclusion, Exxon Mobil's future earnings are likely to be influenced by oil and gas prices, refining margins, natural gas prices, global demand for energy, acquisitions, and dividend payments. These factors can impact the company's profitability and should be closely monitored by investors.