What factors will impact CG's future EPS growth?

The future EPS growth of Carlyle Group (CG) will likely be influenced by the following key factors:

1. **Revenue Growth**: Carlyle's revenue has shown significant growth, with a 319% increase in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. This trend suggests a strong demand for the company's services, which is a positive indicator for future EPS growth.
2. **Profit Margin Improvement**: The company's profit margin has improved from 14% in Q3 2023 to 24% in Q3 2024. This improvement, driven by higher revenue, indicates better efficiency in generating profits. As revenue continues to grow, the profit margin could potentially increase further, contributing to EPS growth.
3. **Fundraising and Management Fees**: Carlyle's ability to attract capital and generate management fees is a significant factor in its revenue and profitability. The company's success in this area could positively impact future EPS growth.
4. **Realizations and Deployme**: The company's realized principal investment income and realized performance revenues have shown year-over-year changes of +27.3% and +22.2%, respectively. These increases suggest a strong performance in realizing investments, which could contribute to future EPS growth.
5. **Industry Trends and Competition**: The American Capital Markets industry is expected to grow at a rate of 5.7%, which is slightly higher than Carlyle's forecasted growth of 5.4%. This suggests that the company is well-positioned within a growing industry, which could support EPS growth.
6. **Institutional Investor Activity**: There has been mixed activity from institutional investors, with some increasing their stakes in Carlyle, while others have reduced their positions. Institutional investor sentiment can influence market perception and potentially impact future EPS growth through their influence on stock price and market dynamics.
7. **Dividend Payments**: Carlyle has announced a dividend payment, although the payout ratio is high at 123.89%. While high dividend payments can reduce earnings available for reinvestment, they can also signal confidence in future earnings growth if the company's earnings are expected to cover the dividends comfortably.
8. **Analyst Forecasts**: Analysts have provided varying estimates for Carlyle's EPS, with a consensus EPS for the fiscal year 2024 at $3.66. This suggests a moderate growth expectation, which could be influenced by the company's performance and industry trends.

In conclusion, Carlyle's future EPS growth is likely to be driven by continued revenue growth, improvement in profit margins, successful fundraising and management fee generation, and positive realizations. However, it is important to monitor industry trends, institutional investor actions, and dividend policies, as these factors can also significantly impact the company's financial performance and EPS growth.