What factors could drive IPI's EPS surprise in Q1 2025?

Intrepid Potash (IPI) is unlikely to experience an EPS surprise in Q1 2025 based on the current analyst consensus and the company's recent performance.

1. **Analyst Expectations**: The stock has a "Strong Sell" consensus rating from analysts, with an average price target of $20.5, which is significantly lower than the last price of $29.91. This suggests that analysts are not currently expecting a positive EPS surprise.

2. **Recent Performance**: Intrepid Potash has made progress in improving its financial performance. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 million for Q4 2024, compared to $7.1 million in the previous year. However, the adjusted net loss for the quarter was $1.4 million, which is an improvement from the $5.2 million loss in Q4 2023.
3. **Production and Sales Improvements**: Intrepid Potash has seen significant increases in potash production and Trio sales volumes. Potash production for Q4 2024 was 117,000 tons, a 50% increase from Q4 2023, and full-year potash production was 295,000 tons, over 30% increase from 2023. Trio sales volumes reached a company record of 254,000 tons in 2024.
4. **Price Targets and Guidance**: The company's average net realized sales price for potash in Q1 2025 is expected to be $305 to $315 per ton, and for Trio, it is expected to be $340 to $350 per ton. This indicates that while there may be some improvement in pricing, it is not likely to result in a significant EPS surprise.
5. **Challenges and Risks**: Despite the improvements, Intrepid Potash faces challenges such as potential impacts from Canadian tariffs on potash and limited growth in production volumes. These factors could contribute to a more stable financial performance rather than a surprise.

In conclusion, while Intrepid Potash has shown improvements in production and financial metrics, the analyst consensus and the company's guidance suggest that an EPS surprise in Q1 2025 is unlikely.