What factors could disrupt CVS's 2025 EPS forecast?

Several factors could disrupt CVS's 2025 EPS forecast:

1. **Challenges in the Health Care Benefits Segment**: The Health Care Benefits segment is facing significant challenges, including higher healthcare utilization and adverse Medicare Advantage star ratings. These factors are likely to continue impacting the segment's performance, potentially leading to lower earnings.
2. **Medicare Advantage Reimbursement Changes**: The impact of Medicare Advantage reimbursement changes is a significant concern for CVS's 2025 earnings. The company is expecting a meaningful recovery in its Aetna business, particularly in Medicare Advantage, but the timing and extent of this recovery could be disrupted by changes in reimbursement rates or policies.
3. **Strategic Imperatives**: CVS is undergoing a strategic transformation, including the integration of care systems and the expansion of value-based healthcare models. The success of these initiatives is critical to the company's future earnings, and any delays or setbacks could negatively impact the EPS forecast.
4. **Pharmacy Drug Mix and Specialty Pharmacy Growth**: While the Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment is expected to grow due to the pharmacy drug mix and increased contributions from specialty pharmacy, changes in drug pricing or formular policies could affect profitability in this segment.
5. **Interest Rates and Financial Stress**: The company's financial health is under pressure, with an Altman Z-Score of 2.08, indicating a gray zone of financial stress. Higher interest rates could increase the cost of debt and negatively impact the company's earnings.
6. **Regulatory and Legal Factors**: CVS is involved in various legal disputes and regulatory matters, including those related to pharmacy benefit management and specialty drugs. Any adverse outcomes from these matters could impact the company's earnings and EPS forecast.

In summary, while CVS has taken steps to address its challenges and is forecasting growth in 2025, several factors could disrupt its EPS forecast, including those related to the Health Care Benefits segment, Medicare Advantage, strategic initiatives, pharmacy drug mix, financial health, and regulatory factors.