What can we expect from RIVN's earnings in 2025?

**RIVN's earnings in 2025 are expected to show improvements in profitability**, despite ongoing challenges in the automotive sector. Here's a detailed analysis:

1. **EPS and Revenue Estimates**:
- For the fiscal year 2025, Rivian Automotive is estimated to report an EPS of -$0.80, which represents a 32.77% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
- The estimated revenue for the year is $5.46 billion, indicating a significant change of +9.8% compared to the previous year.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, analysts project revenue to be $998.66 million, showing a 17.05% drop year-over-year, but with a slight rise in EPS to -$0.80 compared to the previous year's -$1.36.
2. **Production and Operational Updates**:
- Rivian has spun off its micromobility business into Also, Inc., which may indicate a strategic focus on core electric vehicle operations.
- The company's collaboration with XPEL for customizations and its joint venture with Volkswagen could potentially boost technological advancements and revenue opportunities.
- Rivian's production guidance for 2025 is expected to be between 47,000 to 49,000 vehicles, suggesting a consistent operational outlook.
3. **Financial Performance and Challenges**:
- Rivian's total shareholder return for 2024 was 18.90%, lagging the broader US Auto industry's 39.7% return.
- The company reported its first quarterly gross profit of $170 million for Q4 2024, marking a significant recovery from a loss of $606 million in the same quarter the previous year.
- Despite improvements, Rivian's annual performance has underperformed the industry, and challenges persist, such as regulatory credits and green car credit uncertainties.
4. **Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings**:
- The consensus rating for Rivian Automotive is "Neutral" with an average analyst price target of $13.77, indicating a neutral outlook from analysts.
- Recent executive changes and collaborations have sparked investor interest, leading to a 10% increase in stock price over the past week.
- The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500's modest rebounds have provided a supportive backdrop for Rivian's stock performance.

In conclusion, while Rivian is expected to show improvements in profitability and revenue, the company still faces challenges and uncertainties in the automotive market. The spin-off of its micromobility business and strategic collaborations could be pivotal in shaping its future performance. Analysts maintain a neutral stance on the stock, reflecting the complex landscape of the electric vehicle industry.