Eur/pln. Give me prediction and analysis for the next 2 hours

EUR/PLN Prediction and Analysis for the Next 2 Hours

1. Short-Term Forecast:
   • The EUR/PLN exchange rate is forecasted to remain stable at zł 4.29 in the next 24 hours, with a slight increase to zł 4.30 in the following hour.
   • This stability is due to the current sentiment being bearish, with a high volatility of 0.39%.
2. Technical Analysis:
   • The pair is trading near the 50-Day SMA of zł 4.28 and the 200-Day SMA of zł 4.29, indicating a consolidation phase.
   • The 1-hour moving average is not available, and the Fibonacci Retracement over the past year is also unavailable.
   • The support level is at zł 4.28, and the resistance level is at zł 4.30.
3. Market Sentiment:
   • The sentiment is bearish, which could lead to a downward pressure on the PLN if the market perceives further rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
   • Danske Bank expects the EUR/PLN to move back higher due to positive news already priced in and a potential return to rate cuts in Q1 2024.
4. Fundamental Analysis:
   • The EUR/PLN is sensitive to interest rate differentials, with the NBP's stance and any forthcoming rate decisions crucial.
   • The Polish Zloty (PLN) has suffered in recent days, and heavy long positioning in the FX market will be a problem for bigger gains.
5. Conclusion: The EUR/PLN exchange rate is likely to experience limited movement in the next two hours, with a slight uptick expected but still within the current range. The sentiment and technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, but the potential for a correction higher, as indicated by Danske Bank, could lead to a brief spike. The key will be the sentiment's evolution and any developments regarding interest rates.