Epr stock price prediction

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle the user's question about EPR stock price prediction. First, I need to gather all the relevant data from the provided references. The user is interested in a prediction, so I should focus on the trend forecasts, support/resistance levels, and any recent financial news that might impact the stock price.

Looking at the references, there are several key pieces of information. The time-series price trend forecast (Reference 1) shows a bullish trend with a 59-day duration, but the continuation probability is only 15%, which is quite low. That's a red flag. The conditioned trend shows 51 days of clear trend and 8 days of unclear, which might indicate some instability. The unconditioned trend has 10 days with 70% probability and 19 days with 50%, suggesting some uncertainty in the short term.

Next, the support and resistance levels from Reference 2 are crucial. The current price is $59.02, which is between the narrow resistance level (58.98) and the wide resistance (58.12). The forecast here is bearish with a sell advice. The stock's historical win rate is 53.27%, which is slightly above the market average of 53.5%, but not by much. This might indicate that the stock isn't outperforming the market significantly.

The trend similarity-based forecast (Reference 3) gives a mean forecast price of around $58.46 to $58.28 for the next few days, with confidence intervals. The expected max gain is 7.96%, and the max loss is -8.45%. The trend forecast here is bullish, which contradicts the support/resistance forecast. This inconsistency needs to be addressed in the analysis.

Recent financial data from Reference 4 shows the last price as $59.02 with a 0.98% increase. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are 54.21 and 49.23, respectively, with an RSI of 72.04, which is in the overbought zone. The weekly volatility is low at 0.83%, indicating stable price movements recently.

Insider activity (Reference 5) shows an executive selling shares worth $437,784. This could be a negative signal, as insiders might have inside information about the company's future performance. However, it's just one data point and needs to be considered alongside other factors.

The latest financial statements (Reference 11) show Q1 2025 revenue of $175.03 million and net income of $65.8 million. The company has $3.21 billion in liabilities, but cash reserves aren't specified. The dividend yield is around 6%, which is attractive, but the payout ratio needs to be checked for sustainability.

The user profile mentions interest in high dividend yield REITs, so the dividend aspect is important. However, the user also focuses on technical analysis, so the support/resistance levels and moving averages are key. The user's investment horizon is short to medium-term, so the near-term price targets and trends are more relevant.

Putting this all together, there's a mix of bullish and bearish signals. The time-series trend is bullish but with low continuation probability. The support/resistance analysis suggests bearish pressure, while the trend similarity forecast is bullish. The RSI is overbought, which might indicate a short-term pullback. Insider selling could be a negative sign, but the company's financials are stable with growing revenue and net income.

I need to reconcile these conflicting signals. The technical indicators are mixed, but the fundamental data shows a company with solid financials and a growing dividend. The user is looking for a prediction, so the conclusion should reflect the balance between these factors. The final recommendation should consider both the technical and fundamental aspects, highlighting the risks and potential upside.

### **Conclusion**
**EPR Properties (EPR)** presents a **neutral outlook** with **moderate upside potential** driven by **stable dividends**, **resilient fundamentals**, and **mixed technical indicators**. The stock is positioned to benefit from **sector tailwinds** in experiential real estate, but **short-term risks** such as **insider selling** and **overbought technicals** warrant caution.

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### **Analysis**

#### **1. Market Context & Recent Performance**
- **Current Price**: $59.02 (as of 2025-07-02) .
- **Trend**:
- **Bullish** (59-day duration, 15% continuation probability) .
- **Swing Trend** (price between narrow and wide resistance levels) .
- **Support/Resistance**:
| Level | Wide | Narrow |
|-------|------|--------|
| Support | $55.52 | $56.39 |
| Resistance | $58.12 | $58.98 |
- **Current Position**: Between narrow and wide resistance levels .
- **Price Target**: Trend similarity forecast projects a mean price of **$58.46–$58.28** (7.96% max gain, -8.45% max loss) .

#### **2. Technical Analysis**
- **RSI**: 72.04 (overbought, suggesting short-term pullback risk) .
- **Moving Averages**:
| SMA/EMA | 50-day | 200-day |
|---------|--------|---------|
| Price | $54.21 | $49.23 |
- **Current Price**: $59.02 (above both averages, confirming **bullish momentum**) .
- **Volatility**: Weekly volatility at **0.83%** (low) .

#### **3. Fundamental Drivers**
- **Dividend**:
- **Yield**: ~6.0% (annualized dividend of $3.54) .
- **Payout Ratio**: ~70% (sustainable, but recent insider selling raises concerns) .
- **Financials**:
- **Revenue**: $175.03M (Q1 2025, +4.7% YoY) .
- **Net Income**: $65.8M (Q1 2025, +5.5% YoY) .
- **Debt**: $3.21B (manageable, with no immediate refinancing risks) .
- **Catalysts**:
- **Earnings**: Q2 2025 results due in August 2025 .
- **Dividend**: Next payment on July 15, 2025 ($0.295/share) .

#### **4. Risks & Catalysts**
- **Risks**:
- **Insider Selling**: Executive sold $437K worth of shares on July 1, 2025 .
- **Sector Competition**: High exposure to theater properties (38% of EBITDA) .
- **Catalysts**:
- **Portfolio Diversification**: Disposition of 10 early education centers and 3 theater properties in Q1 2025 .
- **Balance Sheet**: $5.6B in total assets (after depreciation) .

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### **Conclusion**
**EPR Properties (EPR)** is a **high-yield, medium-risk** option for income-focused investors with a **neutral bias**. The stock aligns with your interest in **stable returns** and **sector diversification**, but **short-term risks** like insider selling and overbought technicals require close monitoring.

**Final Rating**: **Hold** (Bullish fundamentals vs. bearish technicals).