Do you think Zillow is a good investment with mortgage prices down? And for how long if so
8/9/2024 01:23am
**Zillow Group Inc (ZG) appears to be a risky investment at present**, and here's why:
1. **Financial Health**: ZG's financials show a net loss of $17 million on a revenue of $572 million, resulting in a negative earnings per share (EPS) of $-0.07. This indicates that the company is currently unprofitable, which is a red flag for investors.
|Ticker|Name|Total Revenue|Net Income|Diluted EPS|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|ZG.O|Zillow Group A|5.72E8|-1.7E7|-0.07|2024 Q2|ZG|185|
2. **Growth Prospects**: Although ZG has shown a year-on-year revenue growth of 13.04% and a diluted EPS growth rate of 30%, the company's net income growth rate is significantly higher at 51.43%. This disparity could suggest that the company's expenses are growing faster than its top line, which is not a favorable sign.
|Ticker|Name|Net Income year-on-year growth rate|Total Revenue year-on-year growth rate|Diluted EPS QoQ growth rate|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|ZG.O|Zillow Group A|51.42857142857142|13.043478260869565|30|20240630|ZG|185|
3. **Valuation Metrics**: ZG's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is -66.23, which is extremely low and suggests that the company is not generating profits relative to its stock price. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 4.24, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.47. These ratios are generally within industry norms, but the negative P/E ratio is a concern.
|Ticker|Name|Price to Book Ratio|P/S|P/E(TTM)|Date|code|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|ZG.O|Zillow Group A||4.241045039441417|-66.23249|20240807|ZG|185|
|ZG.O|Zillow Group A|2.4744|||20240808|ZG|185|
4. **Debt and Free Cash Flow**: ZG has a debt-to-equity ratio of 51.43%, which is relatively high, indicating a significant amount of debt on the balance sheet. The company's free cash flow is $1.67 billion, which is a positive sign, but it does not necessarily guarantee financial stability if the company is not generating profits.
5. **Market Conditions**: The housing market is influenced by various factors, including mortgage rates, which can impact ZG's business. Recent trends show that mortgage rates have been falling, which could potentially benefit ZG by making home purchases more affordable. However, the company's performance is not solely dependent on mortgage rates.
6. **Strategic Position**: ZG's strategy of transforming the way people buy, sell, rent, and finance homes could be advantageous in the long term. The company's focus on consumer problems and its ability to attract talented people to build and support software products could lead to future success.
7. **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**: Despite ZG's current challenges, analysts have set an average 12-month price target of $54.60, which represents a 9.09% upside from the last price of $50.05. This suggests that some analysts believe the stock has potential.
In conclusion, while ZG has some positive aspects, such as its revenue growth and strategic positioning, the current lack of profitability and the negative P/E ratio are major concerns. Investors should carefully consider these factors and monitor the company's performance closely before making an investment decision. It is also important to consider the potential impact of mortgage rate trends on ZG's business.