How did DLTR's Q1 2026 EPS forecast compare to past trends?

Dollar Tree's (DLTR) Q1 2026 EPS forecast is not currently available, making direct comparison to past trends challenging. However, by analyzing the available data, we can infer trends and insights into the company's potential performance.

1. **Recent Performance Context**:
- DLTR's Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $2.11, reflecting a 15.3% decrease from the previous quarter.
- The full-year 2025 EPS was $4.83, marking a significant 18% decline from the previous year.
- In Q4 2024, DLTR's EPS was $2.29, surpassing forecasts, yet in Q1 2025, the company's EPS guidance was lowered to $1.10 to $1.25, indicating potential challenges.

2. **Trend Analysis**:
- DLTR has experienced fluctuating EPS trends. For instance, a 163.11% decline in EPS from 2023 to 2024 is notable.
- The company's EPS has been impacted by various factors, including increased expenses and a decrease in profit margin.
- Despite challenges, DLTR has shown resilience with positive same-store sales growth and an increase in average ticket size.
3. **Comparative Insights**:
- DLTR's Q1 2026 EPS forecast is not directly comparable to past years due to the unavailability of specific figures. However, the trend of decreasing EPS from 2024 to 2025 suggests a potential continuation of this trend if external factors remain unchanged.
- The company's strategic shifts, such as the sale of Family Dollar and focus on Dollar Tree's long-term growth, may influence future EPS performance.
4. **Market Analysts' Perspectives**:
- Analysts have adjusted price targets and ratings, reflecting a cautious optimism. For example, Jefferies increased its price target to $75.00 with a "hold" rating, indicating a belief in stability despite challenges.
- The market's response to earnings releases, with some declines in stock price, suggests investor sensitivity to EPS performance and future guidance.

In conclusion, while a direct comparison to Q1 2026 is not possible due to the unavailability of data, the trend of decreasing EPS from 2024 to 2025, along with strategic shifts and analyst adjustments, suggests a complex landscape for DLTR's future earnings. The company's ability to manage expenses, enhance profitability, and capitalize on its strategic initiatives will be critical in determining its EPS performance in the coming quarters.