How did DLTH's Q1 2026 forecast compare to past trends?

DLTH's Q1 2026 forecast shows a bullish trend with a 56.45% historical win rate for this type of forecast The forecast price for DLTH on April 4, 2025, was $1.84, with a 34% confidence interval ranging from $1.64 to $1.94, and a 68% confidence interval ranging from $1.57 to $1.98

1. Comparison to Past Trends:
   • The current trend for DLTH is bearish, having lasted for 51 days This suggests that the stock is likely to continue its downward trajectory in the near term.
   • The conditioned trend analysis shows a continuation probability of 50%, with 47 days of a clear bearish trend This indicates that while there's an even chance of the trend reversing, it's more likely to continue in the same direction.
   • The unconditioned trend indicates that there's a 70% probability of the bullish forecast being accurate for approximately 12.2 days, and a 50% probability for about 19.0 days This suggests that while there's a chance of the stock price increasing, the probability is not overwhelmingly in favor of a bullish outlook.

2. Support and Resistance Levels:
   • DLTH is currently positioned between the narrow support level of $1.89 and the wide support level of $1.49, and between the narrow resistance level of $3.12 and the wide resistance level of $2.71 This indicates that the stock is likely to face resistance around $3.12 and support around $1.89.
   • The forecast advises buying the stock, which aligns with the bullish forecast, but it's important to consider the current trend and support/resistance levels when evaluating the forecast.
3. Forecast Price Trend:
   • The forecast price for DLTH on April 7, 2025, was $1.85, with a 34% confidence interval ranging from $1.76 to $1.95, and a 68% confidence interval ranging from $1.66 to $1.95 This suggests that the stock is likely to fluctuate around this price point.
   • The expected maximum gain is 29.08%, which is significant, but so is the potential maximum loss of -25.92% This indicates that while there's potential for a substantial gain, there's also a considerable risk to consider.

In conclusion, while the Q1 2026 forecast for DLTH is bullish, it's important to consider the current bearish trend, support and resistance levels, and the potential for significant volatility before making investment decisions. The forecast advises buying the stock, but it's crucial to weigh this advice against other indicators and market conditions.