How did CRS's Q3 2025 forecast compare to past surprises?

Carpenter Technology (CRS) has a history of beating earnings estimates, as evidenced by its recent surprises in Q2 and Q3. However, the Q3 2025 forecast indicates a bearish trend, which suggests that the stock may not continue this pattern of outperformance.

1. **Comparison to Past Surprises**:
- In Q2, CRS beat earnings estimates by $0.04, with an EPS of $1.66 compared to the forecasted $1.62. This was a positive surprise, indicating the company's performance exceeded expectations.
- In Q3, CRS achieved record adjusted operating income of $90 million, marking a 29% sequential increase and a 129% year-over-year increase. The company also reported $684.9 million in net sales, surpassing the quarterly guidance.
2. **Forecasted Performance in Q3 2025**:
- The Q3 2025 forecast for CRS shows a bearish trend, with a 77% probability of continuation. This suggests that the stock may not experience the same level of earnings beat expectations as seen in the previous quarters.
- The current price trend is below the wide support level, indicating a potential for price swings. The forecast advises selling, with a historical win rate of 63.16% for this type of forecast.
3. **Insights and Conclusion**:
- CRS has a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations, but the Q3 2025 forecast indicates a challenging period for the stock.
- Investors should consider the bearish trend forecast and the potential price swings when assessing the stock's future performance in Q3 2025.
- While CRS's historical performance suggests it may continue to beat estimates, the current forecast and market conditions indicate a more cautious approach may be warranted until there is a clearer indication of a trend reversal.