How does CRGY's Q1 2025 earnings forecast compare to past performance?

**Crescent Energy's (CRGY) Q1 2025 earnings forecast is significantly lower than its past performance.** Here's a detailed comparison:

1. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Comparison**:
- The EPS for Q1 2025 is estimated at $0.26, which represents a year-over-year decline of 55.2%.
- In contrast, the actual EPS for CRGY in the past three years has been $1.08 for Q4 2024, $0.68 for Q4 2022, and $0.58 for Q4 2023.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2022 Q1||-2.03|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2022 Q2||1.3|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2022 Q3||2.74|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2023 Q1|161.08374384236453|1.24|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2023 Q2|-91.53846153846153|0.11|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2023 Q3|-124.45255474452554|-0.67|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2024 Q1|-120.16129032258065|-0.25|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2024 Q2|200.00000000000006|0.33|169|
|CRGY|CRGY.N|Crescent Energy|2024 Q3|89.55223880597015|-0.07|169|

2. **Revenue Comparison**:
- The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is $890.87 million, indicating a 35.5% increase year-over-year.
- Crescent Energy's revenue for the full year 2024 was $2.93 billion, which is higher than the estimated Q1 2025 revenue.
3. **Analyst Forecasts and Trends**:
- Analysts have revised their capital expenditure estimates for Crescent Energy downward by 11% after the company decided to move a rig to their southern Eagle Ford dry gas position.
- The average daily net sales volumes for natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids have been forecasted to increase significantly compared to the previous year.
4. **Stock Price Target and Market Sentiment**:
- Raymond James has reduced the stock’s price target from $23.00 to $18.00 following the fourth-quarter results and a decline in oil prices.
- Despite the earnings forecast decline, Crescent Energy is projected to generate a robust 14% free cash flow to enterprise value (FCF/EV) in 2025.

In conclusion, while CRGY's Q1 2025 earnings forecast shows a decline compared to its recent past, the estimated revenue growth and future outlook suggest resilience in the face of lower oil prices and revised capital expenditure estimates.