How does CRGY's Q1 2025 earnings forecast compare to past performance?

Crescent Energy's (CRGY) Q1 2025 earnings forecast is significantly lower than its past performance. Here's a detailed comparison:

1. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Comparison:
   • The EPS for Q1 2025 is estimated at $0.26, which represents a year-over-year decline of 55.2%.
   • In contrast, the actual EPS for CRGY in the past three years has been $1.08 for Q4 2024, $0.68 for Q4 2022, and $0.58 for Q4 2023.

2. Revenue Comparison:
   • The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is $890.87 million, indicating a 35.5% increase year-over-year.
   • Crescent Energy's revenue for the full year 2024 was $2.93 billion, which is higher than the estimated Q1 2025 revenue.
3. Analyst Forecasts and Trends:
   • Analysts have revised their capital expenditure estimates for Crescent Energy downward by 11% after the company decided to move a rig to their southern Eagle Ford dry gas position.
   • The average daily net sales volumes for natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids have been forecasted to increase significantly compared to the previous year.
4. Stock Price Target and Market Sentiment:
   • Raymond James has reduced the stock’s price target from $23.00 to $18.00 following the fourth-quarter results and a decline in oil prices.
   • Despite the earnings forecast decline, Crescent Energy is projected to generate a robust 14% free cash flow to enterprise value (FCF/EV) in 2025.

In conclusion, while CRGY's Q1 2025 earnings forecast shows a decline compared to its recent past, the estimated revenue growth and future outlook suggest resilience in the face of lower oil prices and revised capital expenditure estimates.