Cox's forcast

Cox Automotive's forecasts for U.S. auto sales indicate a stable market with some variations in sales volume and pace.

1. **August Sales Forecast**: For August 2024, the sales pace is expected to finish near 15.4 million, reflecting a slight increase from the previous August's 15.3 million pace but a decrease from the robust July level of 15.8 million. The sales volume is forecast to rise significantly, increasing by 8.1% from the previous year and by 12.1% from July. This growth is attributed to the extra selling days and the inclusion of the Labor Day holiday weekend, which is expected to boost sales further.
2. **February Sales Forecast**: In February 2024, the sales pace is forecast to be higher than the previous February's 14.9 million pace, increasing to 15.4 million. The sales volume is expected to rise by 6.3% year over year and reach 1.22 million units. This improvement is attributed to milder weather compared to the previous year and solid inventory levels.
3. **Q1 2023 Sales Forecast**: For the first quarter of 2023, new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to grow by 5.7% year over year, reaching 3.5 million units. The sales pace is forecast at an unexpectedly strong annual rate of 15 million, up from 14.1 million in Q1 2022. This growth is driven by improved inventory levels and increased fleet activity.
4. **May Sales Forecast**: In May 2024, the annual sales pace is forecast to finish near 15.8 million, an increase from the previous May's 15.5 million level and up 0.1 million from April's 15.7 million pace. Sales volume is expected to rise by 3.5% from the previous year and by 6.4% from April. This forecast is supported by significantly increased inventory levels leading to more appealing incentives, despite continued affordability issues driven by high interest rates and elevated new-vehicle prices.
5. **March Sales Forecast**: For March 2024, the sales volume is expected to reach 1.45 million units, a 4.5% increase from the previous year and a 14.4% increase from February. The sales pace is forecast to finish near 15.5 million, up 0.6 million from the previous March's 14.9 million pace but down from February's strong 15.8 million level. This forecast is supported by improved inventory levels and the growth in fleet sales.

In summary, Cox Automotive's forecasts indicate a stable U.S. auto sales market with variations in sales volume and pace due to seasonal factors, improved inventory levels, and the impact of holidays. The forecasts suggest that the market is slowly recovering from the challenges of the previous years, with sales volumes and paces showing gradual increases year over year.