Cox's forcast


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Cox Automotive's forecasts for U.S. auto sales indicate a stable market with some variations in sales volume and pace.
- August Sales Forecast: For August 2024, the sales pace is expected to finish near 15.4 million, reflecting a slight increase from the previous August's 15.3 million pace but a decrease from the robust July level of 15.8 million1. The sales volume is forecast to rise significantly, increasing by 8.1% from the previous year and by 12.1% from July1. This growth is attributed to the extra selling days and the inclusion of the Labor Day holiday weekend, which is expected to boost sales further1.
- February Sales Forecast: In February 2024, the sales pace is forecast to be higher than the previous February's 14.9 million pace, increasing to 15.4 million2. The sales volume is expected to rise by 6.3% year over year and reach 1.22 million units2. This improvement is attributed to milder weather compared to the previous year and solid inventory levels2.
- Q1 2023 Sales Forecast: For the first quarter of 2023, new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to grow by 5.7% year over year, reaching 3.5 million units3. The sales pace is forecast at an unexpectedly strong annual rate of 15 million, up from 14.1 million in Q1 20223. This growth is driven by improved inventory levels and increased fleet activity3.
- May Sales Forecast: In May 2024, the annual sales pace is forecast to finish near 15.8 million, an increase from the previous May's 15.5 million level and up 0.1 million from April's 15.7 million pace4. Sales volume is expected to rise by 3.5% from the previous year and by 6.4% from April4. This forecast is supported by significantly increased inventory levels leading to more appealing incentives, despite continued affordability issues driven by high interest rates and elevated new-vehicle prices4.
- March Sales Forecast: For March 2024, the sales volume is expected to reach 1.45 million units, a 4.5% increase from the previous year and a 14.4% increase from February5. The sales pace is forecast to finish near 15.5 million, up 0.6 million from the previous March's 14.9 million pace but down from February's strong 15.8 million level5. This forecast is supported by improved inventory levels and the growth in fleet sales5.
In summary, Cox Automotive's forecasts indicate a stable U.S. auto sales market with variations in sales volume and pace due to seasonal factors, improved inventory levels, and the impact of holidays. The forecasts suggest that the market is slowly recovering from the challenges of the previous years, with sales volumes and paces showing gradual increases year over year.
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