Is COP's Q1 forecast for 2025 achievable?

**ConocoPhillips' (COP) Q1 2025 forecast is achievable**, considering the company's recent performance, strategic acquisitions, and operational outlook. Here's a detailed analysis to support this conclusion:

1. **Strong Production Performance**: COP's production for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 2,183 MBOED, an increase of 281 MBOED from the same period a year ago. After adjusting for impacts from closed acquisitions and dispositions, fourth-quarter production increased by 139 MBOED or 6% from a year ago. This strong production trajectory suggests that COP has the capacity to meet its Q1 2025 production forecast.

2. **Acquisitions Enhance Reserves and Production**: The acquisition of Marathon Oil has significantly enhanced COP's Lower 48 portfolio, adding more than 2 billion barrels of low-cost resources across top-tier basins in the United States. This strategic move is likely to boost COP's production and reserves, contributing to the achievement of its Q1 2025 forecast.
3. **Financial Discipline and Shareholder Returns**: COP has a track record of financial discipline and prioritizes shareholder returns. In 2024, the company delivered a 14% return on capital employed (ROCE), or 15% on a cash-adjusted basis, highlighting efficient capital usage. COP plans to return $10 billion to shareholders in 2025, assuming current commodity price levels hold. This commitment to shareholder returns, combined with strong operational performance, supports the achievability of its Q1 2025 forecast.
4. **Analyst Confidence and Price Target Increases**: Analysts have recently upped their Q1 2025 EPS estimates for COP, with Capital One Financial now expecting earnings per share of $1.97, up from $1.77. This increase in estimates reflects analysts' confidence in COP's ability to meet its financial targets, including the Q1 2025 forecast.
5. **Operational Focus on Efficiency and Growth**: COP has emphasized achieving more than $1 billion in integration-related run rate synergies by the end of 2025, which is already reflected in its announced capital guidance. This focus on operational efficiency and growth is a positive indicator for the achievability of its Q1 2025 forecast.

In conclusion, COP's Q1 2025 forecast is achievable based on the company's strong production performance, strategic acquisitions, financial discipline, analyst confidence, and operational focus on efficiency and growth.