How consistent is PM's earnings beat trend?

Philip Morris (PM) has demonstrated a consistent trend of earnings beats, with a strong track record of surpassing earnings and revenue expectations across multiple quarters.

1. **Frequency of Earnings Beats**: PM has consistently beaten earnings expectations over the past few years, with earnings surprises in each of the last three reported quarters. This includes a 0.15 EPS surprise in Q4 2022, a 0.01 EPS surprise in Q4 2024, and a 0.09 EPS surprise in Q4 2023.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|EPS Surprise YoY|EPS Surprise|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20220331|-58.82352941176471|0.07|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20220630|250|0.07|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20220930|433.33333333333337|0.16|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20221231|650|0.15|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20230331|-42.85714285714286|0.04|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20230630|85.7142857142857|0.13|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20230930|-62.5|0.06|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20231231|-160|-0.09|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20240331|124.99999999999997|0.09|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|20240630|-84.61538461538461|0.02|169|

2. **Revenue Outperformance**: Similarly, PM has exceeded revenue expectations, with revenue surprises in each of the last three reported quarters. The company's revenue surprises range from 37 million in Q4 2023 to 572 million in Q4 2022.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Revenue Surprise|Revenue Surprise YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2022 Q1|3.16E8|0.31746031746031744|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2022 Q2|1.162E9|1628.9473684210527|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2022 Q3|6.12E8|175.67567567567568|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2022 Q4|5.72E8|66.27906976744185|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2023 Q1|-9.1E7|-128.79746835443038|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2023 Q2|3.17E8|-72.71944922547333|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2023 Q3|-2.9E7|-104.73856209150327|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2023 Q4|3.7E7|-93.53146853146853|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2024 Q1|3.3E8|462.6373626373627|169|
|PM|PM.N|Philip Morris|2024 Q2|2.9E8|-8.517350157728707|169|

3. **Consensus Estimate Revisions**: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's upcoming earnings release reflects the positive sentiment surrounding the stock. Despite a slight revision downward, the consensus EPS estimate for Q2 2024 is $1.55, which PM is expected to beat.
4. **Barclays' Positive Outlook**: Barclays maintains an Overweight rating on PM, citing the company's strong revenue and EPS growth prospects, with a projected 9.5% organic revenue growth and 14-15% ex-FX EPS growth. This optimistic outlook is supported by PM's performance in key markets and its leading position in the tobacco industry.
5. **Historical Performance**: PM's average surprise for the past two quarters is 5.76%, with notable surprises of 3.76% and 7.75% in the previous two reported quarters. This historical performance indicates a strong likelihood of continued earnings beats.

In conclusion, PM's consistent earnings beats, positive analyst revisions, and strong growth projections suggest that the company is well-positioned to continue surpassing earnings expectations in the near future.