How consistent is CI's earnings surprise trend?

Cigna Group (NYSE: CI) has demonstrated a mixed trend in earnings surprises, with recent quarters showing both positive and negative deviations from expected earnings.

1. **Recent Positive Surprises**:
- In Q1 2024, Cigna reported EPS of $6.47, surpassing the analyst estimate of $6.22 by $0.25. This represents a 4.67% earnings surprise.
- For Q2 2024, Cigna's EPS was $6.72, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.42 by $0.30. This corresponds to a 4.67% earnings surprise.
- In Q3 2023, Cigna's EPS of $6.77 exceeded the estimate of $6.66 by $0.11, indicating a 1.65% earnings surprise.

2. **Negative Surprises and Challenges**:
- In Q4 2024, Cigna's EPS was $6.47, which was slightly below the analyst estimate of $6.50, representing a minor negative surprise.
- The company has experienced unexpected cost growth in plans protecting self-funded employers, leading to a decline in net income despite overall revenue growth.
3. **Consistency and Variability**:
- Cigna has outperformed expectations in several quarters, particularly in recent years, with four consecutive quarters of revenue beats.
- However, the company has faced challenges, as evidenced by the underperformance in Q3 2024 compared to the broader market and the negative surprise in Q4 2024.
4. **Strategic Initiatives and Impact**:
- Cigna's strategic moves, such as appointing new executives and focusing on growth acceleration, have supported stock price increases and financial performance.
- The company's consistent increase in dividends and share buybacks has helped maintain shareholder value despite some earnings fluctuations.

In conclusion, while Cigna has had a generally positive earnings surprise trend, it has faced some challenges and variability in meeting earnings expectations. The company's strategic initiatives and consistent shareholder return focus suggest a resilient approach to managing earnings and maintaining market position.