Colgate-Palmolive shares hit 22-month low, how will upcoming earnings affect stock recovery?

The deep research logic is organized as follows: 

Okay, let's tackle this question about Colgate-Palmolive hitting a 22-month low and how upcoming earnings might affect its stock recovery. First, I need to gather all the relevant data from the provided references. 

The user mentioned that CL shares hit a 22-month low, so I should check the stock price history. Looking at Reference 14, the closing price on 2025-10-13 is $76.95, which is indeed the lowest in the past 22 months. The stock has been on a downward trend, especially after peaking in 2024. 

Next, the upcoming earnings release is on October 31, 2025, as per Reference 2. The estimates for Q3 2025 are an EPS of $0.9 and revenue of $5.19 billion (Reference 3). Analysts have mixed opinions; JPMorgan lowered the price target to $88 from $95 but maintained an Overweight rating (Reference 4). Morgan Stanley also lowered their target but kept an Overweight rating. The consensus rating is a "Buy" (Reference 17). 

The company's recent performance shows organic sales growth slowing down to the low end of the 2-4% range due to weaker category performance (Reference 4). However, they maintained a strong market share in key products like toothpaste and manual toothbrushes (Reference 5). The dividend is still being paid, which is a positive sign for income-focused investors (References 4, 9). 

Institutional ownership has slightly decreased, with some funds trimming their positions (References 12, 19, 26). The technical analysis from Reference 27 shows a strong sell signal, which aligns with the recent price drop. 

Putting this together, the stock's fundamentals are mixed. While there's pressure from weaker sales and institutional sell-offs, the company's strong market position, consistent dividends, and upcoming earnings could be catalysts for recovery. The key will be whether the earnings beat estimates and if management provides a clearer outlook for future growth. If the results are better than expected, especially in organic sales and margins, the stock might rebound. Otherwise, the downward trend could continue.

### 🌟 **Conclusion**
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) shares have reached a 22-month low, but the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings release on **October 31, 2025** could act as a catalyst for recovery. The stock’s valuation appears undervalued relative to its historical performance , and the company’s strong market share in core categories provides a foundation for stability. However, the outlook hinges on whether the earnings report aligns with revised analyst expectations and addresses concerns about weaker category performance .

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### 📊 **Key Analysis**
#### 1. **Current Market Context**
- **Stock Price**: CL closed at **$76.95** on October 13, 2025, marking a **22-month low** .
- **Earnings Catalyst**: The company is scheduled to release Q3 2025 results on **October 31, 2025** , with consensus estimates for **EPS of $0.9** and **revenue of $5.19 billion** .
- **Valuation**: CL’s stock is trading near its **52-week low** and appears undervalued based on its **61% gross profit margin** and **55-year dividend streak** .

#### 2. **Earnings Outlook**
| Metric | Q3 2025 Estimate | Recent Trends (Q2 2025) | Key Risks/Opportunities |
|----------------------------|-------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------|
| **EPS** | $0.9 | $0.92 (beat by $0.03) | Pressure from weaker sales |
| **Revenue** | $5.19B | $5.11B (beat by $0.08B) | Organic sales growth at low end of 2-4% range |
| **Gross Margin** | ~60% | 60.1% (down 70 bps YoY) | Cost pressures from tariffs |

#### 3. **Analyst Sentiment**
- **Consensus Rating**: **Buy** (average price target: $93.23) .
- **Recent Adjustments**:
- JPMorgan lowered price target to **$88** from **$95** but maintained an **Overweight** rating .
- Morgan Stanley reduced target to **$96** from **$104**, citing mixed market perspectives .

#### 4. **Institutional Activity**
- **Hedge Fund Activity**:
- Yousif Capital Management reduced holdings by **3.7%** in Q2 .
- Vanguard Personalized Indexing Management increased holdings by **17.8%** in Q2 .
- **Institutional Ownership**: 80.41% of shares held by institutions .

#### 5. **Technical Indicators**
- **Price Action**: CL has fallen **30%** from its 2024 peak of $108.77 .
- **Momentum**: Short-term technical ratings indicate a **“strong sell”** signal .

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### 🎯 **Key Takeaways**
1. **Earnings Beat Potential**: If Q3 results exceed estimates (e.g., EPS > $0.92), CL could rebound toward its **$88 price target** .
2. **Risks**: Weak category performance and cost pressures could weigh on margins, limiting upside .
3. **Long-Term Catalysts**: Consistent dividend payments (yield: **2.7%**) and market leadership in core categories (e.g., toothpaste: 41.1% global share) .

### 🚨 **Final Call**
Colgate-Palmolive’s stock recovery hinges on Q3 earnings clarity. A **beat** in EPS or revenue could trigger a short-term rally, while continued underperformance may prolong the downtrend. For long-term investors, the company’s **dividend resilience** and **market dominance** remain key positives.