CMC's Q3 2025 EPS is unlikely to beat forecasts like Q3 2024. Here's why:
- Current Price Trend: The stock is in a bullish trend, but it has been so for only 18 days. This is relatively short, suggesting that the recent positive momentum might not be robust enough to significantly boost earnings.
- Trend Continuation Probability: There's a 61% probability of trend continuation, but this leaves a significant uncertainty. Given the volatile nature of the market, this uncertainty could lead to variations in earnings that are hard to predict.
- Support and Resistance Levels: The stock is currently positioned between narrow resistance and wide resistance levels, which indicates that while there's a potential for upward movement, it's also nearing a level where upward momentum might wane. This could negatively impact earnings if the stock price fails to break through resistance convincingly.
- Forecasted Price Trend: The forecast for CMC is bearish for the upcoming days, with a sell advice. This suggests that the stock is more likely to decline than rise, which could result in lower-than-expected earnings due to less favorable market conditions.
- Historical Win Rate: The historical win rate for this type of forecast is 66.85%, which is quite high. However, the market's historical win rate is lower, at 61.18%. This indicates that while the forecast model has a decent track record, market factors can still lead to unexpected events that might affect earnings.
In conclusion, while there's a chance that CMC's Q3 2025 EPS could meet or exceed forecasts, the current trends, forecasts, and historical data suggest that it's more likely that the earnings may not beat expectations, especially when compared to Q3 2024.
4/3/2025 05:15am
