Is CG's Q3 2024 EPS growth sustainable long-term?

**The Carlyle Group's (CG) Q3 2024 EPS growth may not be entirely sustainable long-term.** Here's why:

1. **High Volatility in EPS Growth**: The EPS growth rate for CG in Q3 2024 is exceptionally high at 129.69%. Such a significant increase is unlikely to be sustained over the long term, as it is often a result of one-time events or non-recurring factors.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Income YoY|Basic Earnings per Share YoY|Total Revenue YoY|Diluted EPS YoY|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240331|-21.14924181963288|-35.71428571428572|-19.86030267753201|-35.71428571428572|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240630|338.11802232854865|5799.999999999999|131.4866911923826|248.14814814814815|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240930|454.6846846846847|882.6086956521739|267.73653363103546|640.9090909090909|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20241231|133.91018946740266|269.64285714285717|11.477002807169077|129.6875|185|

2. **Concerns over Dividend Sustainability**: The company's dividend yield is attractive at 3.11%, but the annual dividend growth rate has been negative over the past three years, indicating a history of dividend cuts. This could be a red flag for investors looking for sustainable dividend growth.
3. **Mixed Performance in Business Segments**: While some segments, like Investment Income and Fund Management Fees, have shown strong revenue, others, such as Principal Investment Income and Incentive Fees, have lower revenue figures. The sustainability of EPS growth will depend on the performance of all segments, not just the high-performing ones.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Business Composition|Revenue By Business|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Interest and Other Income of Consolidated Funds|6.316E8|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Interest and Other Income of Consolidated Funds|5.106E8|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Interest and Other Income of Consolidated Funds|1.649E8|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Investment Income|-8.39E7|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Incentive Fees|2.62E7|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Interest and Other Income of Consolidated Funds|1.649E8|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Fund Management Fees|5.236E8|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|20240101-2024|Interest and Other Income|5.76E7|185|

4. **Net Margin Indicators**: The net margin for CG is 20.11%, which is a healthy indicator. However, without knowing the specific factors contributing to this margin, it's difficult to assess its sustainability. If the high net margin is due to one-time cost controls or revenue boosts, it may not be sustainable.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Net Profit Margin YoY|Net Profit Margin|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q1|-1.6083144234131117|14.3521|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q2|197.81154373746966|14.1118|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q3|130.78855318449658|19.6618|185|
|CG|CG.O|The Carlyle Group|2024 Q4|219.99725509150693|20.1095|185|

5. **Market and Economic Conditions**: The broader market and economic conditions can significantly impact CG's EPS growth. Changes in interest rates, market volatility, and economic cycles can affect the company's performance and, consequently, its EPS growth.

In conclusion, while CG's Q3 2024 EPS growth is impressive, the sustainability of this growth over the long term is uncertain. Investors should monitor the company's performance across all segments, dividend history, and broader market conditions to make a more informed assessment.