Is CGAU's Q3 2024 EPS performance a sign of stability?

**Centerra Gold's (CGAU) Q3 2024 EPS performance does not indicate stability**, and here's why:

1. **Analyst Forecasts Discrepancies**: Analysts at Cormark have differing views on CGAU's Q3 2024 EPS. R. Gray forecasts an EPS of $0.36, which is higher than the company's current EPS of $0.13. However, another Cormark analyst had previously forecasted a lower EPS of $0.22 for the same period. This discrepancy suggests uncertainty among analysts regarding CGAU's performance.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CGAU|CGAU.N|Centerra Gold|2024 Q1|188.23529411764704|0.3|169|
|CGAU|CGAU.N|Centerra Gold|2024 Q2|200|0.18|169|
|CGAU|CGAU.N|Centerra Gold|2024 Q3|-51.85185185185185|0.13|169|

2. **Recent Performance Trends**: CGAU's recent history shows fluctuations in its EPS. For instance, in Q2 2024, the company's EPS was revised downward from $0.31 to $0.23. This trend of fluctuating estimates does not convey a stable earnings trajectory.
3. **Market Ratings and Target Price Adjustments**: The stock has been given a "Moderate Buy" rating with an average target price of $11.46. While this indicates some level of optimism, the fact that target prices have been adjusted downwards, such as from $11.50 to $12.50, suggests a more cautious outlook.
4. **Financial Metrics Variations**: CGAU's return on equity and net margin indicate room for improvement. A return on equity of 3.40% and a net margin of 4.99% are relatively low, which could imply that the company is not efficiently utilizing equity or managing its margins to optimal levels.
5. **Comparative Performance**: When compared to the previous year, CGAU's performance in Q2 2024 was lackluster, with earnings per share of $0.14 missing the consensus estimate of $0.15. This trend of underperformance could be a red flag for stability concerns.

In conclusion, while there is some optimism among analysts, the fluctuations in EPS forecasts, the adjustments in target prices, and the company's current financial metrics indicate that CGAU's Q3 2024 EPS performance does not necessarily reflect stability.