Can oxy surpass exxon in market cap in 12 years

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) surpassing Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) in market capitalization within the next 12 years is possible, but it would require a significant and sustained outperformance of Exxon Mobil in terms of revenue growth, profitability, and strategic initiatives.

1. Current Market Position: As of August 16, 2024, OXY has a market capitalization of $52.38 billion, while XOM stands at $526.23 billion. This indicates a significant gap between the two companies in terms of market value.
2. Growth Rates: OXY is forecasted to grow its earnings per share (EPS) by 10% per annum over the next five years, with a revenue growth rate of 4.6% per annum. Exxon Mobil, on the other hand, is expected to grow its EPS by 5.0% per annum over the same period, with revenue growth of 15% by 2050.
3. Strategic Plans: Exxon Mobil's strategic plans to reduce costs, improve business mix, and invest in high-return, low-cost-of-supply projects are likely to contribute to its continued growth. Occidental Petroleum's growth is expected to be driven by increased oil and gas production, cost optimization, and strategic acquisitions.
4. Market Conditions: The energy sector is expected to grow, with developing nations adding five times what is reduced by developed countries by 2050. This presents opportunities for both companies, but Exxon Mobil's larger market capitalization and diversified operations may give it an advantage in capitalizing on these opportunities.
5. Time Frame: Given the current market positions, growth rates, and strategic plans of the two companies, it is possible that OXY could surpass Exxon Mobil in market capitalization within the next 12 years, provided it maintains a high level of growth and profitability. However, this scenario is not guaranteed, and market dynamics can change with unexpected events that could alter the trajectory of either company's growth.
6. Conclusion: While the likelihood of OXY surpassing Exxon Mobil in market cap within the next 12 years is possible, it is not guaranteed. Occidental Petroleum would need to demonstrate a sustained outperformance in revenue growth and profitability to achieve this goal, which may not be easily replicable given the current market positions and growth rates of the two companies.