Can MRNA sustain its EPS momentum into Q1 2025?

**Moderna's EPS momentum into Q1 2025 is uncertain**, and several factors suggest caution:

1. **Recent Performance**: Moderna's EPS has been negative in the recent past, with EPS of -$2.91 for Q4 2024 and -$3.33 for Q2 2024. The company is expected to post a loss of $2.90 per share for the current quarter, indicating a change of +5.5% from the year-ago quarter.

|code|Ticker|Name|Date|Diluted EPS YoY|Diluted EPS|market_code|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|MRNA|MRNA.O|Moderna|2024 Q1|-1715.7894736842102|-3.07|185|
|MRNA|MRNA.O|Moderna|2024 Q2|8.011049723756907|-3.33|185|
|MRNA|MRNA.O|Moderna|2024 Q3|100.31479538300103|0.03|185|
|MRNA|MRNA.O|Moderna|2024 Q4|-629.090909090909|-2.91|185|

2. **Analyst Expectations**: Analysts' expectations for Moderna's earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for the current quarter are negative, with an EPS projection of -$2.90 and a revenue forecast of $142.28 million, indicating a 14.8% drop compared to the same quarter last year. This suggests that the company may continue to face challenges in generating positive EPS in the near term.
3. **Fundamental Challenges**: Moderna's stock has been under pressure due to factors such as a potential funding pull by the new Health Secretary and concerns over vaccine safety. These factors could impact the company's financial performance and its ability to sustain EPS momentum.
4. **Market Sentiment**: Despite a neutral recommendation by Citigroup, the average one-year price target for Moderna suggests a potential upside of 62.09%, which could be indicative of some optimism about the company's future performance. However, this does not guarantee a positive EPS momentum.
5. **Strategic Positioning**: Moderna's strategic moves, such as working with the Trump administration and continuing with vaccine development, could have long-term benefits. However, these strategic efforts may not immediately translate to improved EPS in the short term.

In conclusion, while there is some potential for optimism based on analyst forecasts and strategic positioning, the current EPS momentum of Moderna is likely to be influenced more by the company's ability to manage its financial performance amidst negative sentiment and potential funding challenges. Therefore, sustaining EPS momentum into Q1 2025 will depend on Moderna's ability to overcome these challenges and capitalize on its strategic positioning.