Can COLD rebound in Q1 2025 earnings?

Americold Realty Trust (COLD) may face challenges in a rebound in Q1 2025 earnings, considering the following points:

1. Occupancy Challenges: Despite improvements, Americold faces occupancy challenges, with projections for flat economic occupancy in 2025, fluctuating between -100 to +100 basis points change from 2024. This suggests that while there may be some improvement, the overall occupancy picture remains cautious.
2. Economic Occupancy Improvement: The company’s same-store economic occupancy reached nearly 79% in the fourth quarter, indicating a positive trend. However, this is still below the optimal level, and the fluctuation in occupancy points to potential volatility in revenue.
3. Revenue Growth: The estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is $672.03 million, which is slightly below the consensus estimate of $684.78 million. This suggests that while revenue is expected to grow, the growth may not be as robust as initially anticipated.
4. Analyst Estimates: Analysts project a quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, reflecting an increase of 3.5% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $684.78 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.2%. These estimates indicate a modest growth trajectory rather than a significant rebound.
5. Historical Performance: Over the past 2 years, COLD has beaten FFO estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 63% of the time. This historical performance suggests a positive outlook, but it does not guarantee a rebound in Q1 2025 earnings.

In conclusion, while there are some positive indicators such as improved economic occupancy and anticipated revenue growth, the projected earnings per share and revenue estimates for Q1 2025 suggest a modest growth trajectory rather than a significant rebound. The challenges in occupancy and the slight discrepancy between estimated and previous revenue figures suggest that COLD may not experience a strong earnings rebound in Q1 2025.